GOLD: This Is Why He Bought Silver | Jim Rogers

June 11, 2024

GOLD: This Is Why He Bought Silver | Jim Rogers

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silver was down over 50% a couple of weeks ago and gold was making all-time highs they don’t have to move together but they often have over the long term so if gold isn’t an all-time high it seems to me that Silver’s going to make an alltime too eventually so it was just cheaper so I bought some more silver hello and welcome back to sore financially where we discuss the macro to St the micro my name is Kai Hoffman I’m the Ed Jr mining guy on Twitter the CEO of the sore Financial Group and of course the host of this conversation really looking forward to this one because it is with our good friend Jim Rogers he’s coming back we spoke with him just be just a few days ahead of Christmas and of course A lot has happened since the FED has calmed down the world has changed meaning gold and silver have moved geopolitics is getting more tense uh we’ve just chatted briefly off uh off camera there was a big defense minister conference in in Singapore just last week a lot of sable rattling quite a few aggressive notes coming out of China and other countries as well so we’ll have to catch up on what the world looks like these days and of course how is it impacting financial markets I’m really looking forward to switching over to my guest here in a second but before I do that quick teaser hit that like And subscribe button we tremendously appreciate it it helps us reach a wider audience and bring guests like Jim on the channel thank you so much now without much further Ado Jim it is great to have you back on the channel it’s good to see you I’m delighted to be here okayy I hope the world doesn’t come to an end before the show is over yeah we got about 30 minutes so let’s let’s make it snappy I think we’ll make it I think it we’ll make it uh it it is getting more tense and hostile out there sadly and maybe we’ll we’ll start with a geopolitics Jim let’s start with what have you been observing over the last three maybe six months here um in in the world and how is that impacting financial markets well if you look out the window you’ll see that there’s war going on and there’s saber rattling and Washington seems to want more war there was a study done recently that shows America’s been a country since 1776 in all but 19 years America’s been at war with somebody the people in Washington seem to like War we’re not so good at it anymore but they like it I don’t but they seem to so be careful be worried yeah lots going on a lot of hot spots like I think we can focus on three main ones we have China and Taiwan we have the Middle East meaning Israel Iran conflict with Hamas and then of course Russia Ukraine which I think is the one that is being the hottest right now with the EU and the US allowing Ukraine to use their Western weapons to attack Russia directly which was forbidden until recently how do you sort of weigh that like what are your thoughts on that Jim well if you look back at first world war second war lots of previous Wars they often start with small Wars you know there’s a small War here and then a small War there and the next thing you know these small Wars have turned into a big war unfortunately what’s going on now looks a lot like previous periods in history I hope not but it looks as though somebody is leading us up to a war a real shooting War not just a trade War but a real shooting war and it’s not going to be good from anybody no definitely not and as I said it is getting more hostile I feel I’m starting to feel less comfortable in in my own skin here and uh I had Simon hunt on I’m not sure if you’re familiar with his work I had him on the channel here earlier this week and he sort of predicted or thought there might be a an attack against the NATO member country by Russia very soon and that has me worried because I’m not sure what the retaliation would look like well if Russia attacks a NATO member what it’s supposed to mean is big big big war because the NATO treaty says okay if one of you gets hit we all get hit and we’re going to join in now I don’t if they’ll do it I don’t know if they mean it but that’s what the treaty says 100% and let’s hope he doesn’t come to that Jim um what while the geopolitical landscape is changing dramatically and seems like ever like ever faster monetary and fiscal policy in landscape hasn’t really changed that much since we last spoke yes the FED has been extremely doag last time we spoke the Gerome Powell said there might be three rate Cuts so far we have not seen them we’re now early June here June 5th as we’re recording this no rate cuts the market has calmed down uh maybe one rate cut in September but we’re not sure about that what what what are you witnessing on the fiscal and monetary side it seem seems like the status quo hasn’t changed well most economies around the world are doing okay I mean nobody very few people if anybody’s really suffering these days so there’s no reason to cut rates if the central banks mean what they say they’re supposed to step in when there’s a serious problem and help but unless there’s something going on I don’t know about there are very few countries if any that have a serious economic problem right now most people are doing fine so there’s no reason for bureaucrats to cut rights that doesn’t mean they won’t Kai that doesn’t mean it at all I assure you but from what I can read there’s no reason well we’ve all been predicting a global recession for at least 2023 and maybe early parts of 2024 again we’re sitting here in June there’s no recession in site yes there might be one that is that is not talked about but officially there is no recession and we have to sort of analyze a little bit Jim why why is that the case you just mentioned the global economy seem to be doing fine um they’re not exuberant or anything like G GDP growth rates are 1.3% in the US for example but uh why is there no recession that everybody’s been calling for but before my guest answers the question here’s a quick word from our sponsor 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recession everybody including China has printed a lot of money and if you guy if you give me a trillion dollars I’ll show you a very good time oh my gosh we can have a good time you give me half a trillion and we’ll have and that’s what’s going on all these guys have printed staggering amounts of money it’s floating around and it’s got to go somewhere and so economies are having a good time at the moment now we we talked about the US debt levels or Global debt levels Chinese debt levels as well uh they have yet to hit a wall like as a said like earlier like it seems like the waters have come down a little bit on the debt discussions on the on the monetary side as well like where where do you see the wall like when do you see the wall or us hitting the wall us meaning the US and China eventually hitting the wall when do you see that happening well that’s a brilliant question if you sit and look at the numbers and get out a pencil on a piece of paper you’ll realize that the US cannot cannot pay these debts not even my children I mean I certainly I’m old so I don’t have to worry too much but not even my children can pay the debt it’s so stagger but at the moment the Central Bank in Washington just keeps printing money and papering over the problem I don’t know when somebody’s going to wake up one day and say wait a minute this is madness let’s get out of here it’s coming I know it’s coming I can start to see the signs you know that people some people are getting worried some people are getting terribly exuberant that always happens at the end of long ball Market everybody gets happy everybody thinks it’ll never end I can see the dangerous cons coming but I’m not selling short yet it’s too much money around oh you you oh the the short selling part is a question I’ve written down based on our last conversation I’ll get to that in a second JY but um the back to the recession topic and the economy sort of faltering I I personally like looking at Dr copper as an indicator and then maybe the 10-year yield and based on my own gut indicator uh you know like towards the end of the year last time we spoke I I was in the recession Camp I think things are going to get bad like we we need to cut rates uh it’s not looking good the recession is just around the corner but then copper started turning around the 10year yields started to rise again so there’s no flight to save Haven Investments um what were some of the indicators you’re looking at Joe well I assure you things are going to get bad this is the longest period in American history without a serious economic problem it has never happened before in America American history maybe it’s going to go on forever maybe we’re never going to have economic problems again we never have so I can know it’s going to come to an end and as I said you I see the pro potential problems I see a lot of exuberance a lot of confidence in the markets everybody thinks this will go on forever the Central Bank in the United States thinks they have solved the problem they think they’ve got things under control I mean these guys are just bureaucrats and academics they don’t know what they’re doing but when they think they do that is one sign that we’re getting closer to the end but I don’t know I mean maybe we should watch you you tell us when it’s coming to an end I don’t know but I know it is going to come to an end I know that every country nearly every country in the world right now is having good times whenever that has happened in the past it was a time to get worried no better not listen to a YouTuber make predictions here that’s why we got the experts here for this channel Jim but um surprising surprising fact I was just looking at the US debt to GDP ratio and of course it it it spiked up it exploded back in 2020 but it has been coming down since despite massive money printing despite massive deficits and deficit spending over2 trillion dollar a year how how do you explain that is the US actually growing like May I’m thinking maybe of new technologies that are being you know uh leveraged they they have good accounting they have good bookkeepers you know if you work for the government you learn how to fake the books and everybody around you is faking the books so you fake the books too I mean America’s the largest de nation in the history of the world they can’t fake that they can try they can cover it up and they do cover it up but facts are facts and the debt goes higher every day every hour and this throughout history when something like this has happened it has not ended well I don’t know when it’s going to end but I know it is going to end as I say I’m not selling short yet I’m not very good at Market timing anyway but even if I did know what I was doing I’m not selling short yet yeah you mentioned that I’m glad you bring that up a second time because I wrote down like last time we spoke the S&P 500 was about at Four 4,660 Points roughly um now we’re trading at over 5300 we’ve been higher before you you said you’d sell short once you see that blowoff top like where is that level for you like give us a bit of a a sentiment check here I wish there were an easy answer to that oh my gosh wouldn’t we all be rich if we could just figure out when the when it’s going to Peak I’m not smart enough to know that I’m not very good at Market timing I never have been I know it’s going to be I can see the signs I can see the signs of exuberance I can see the signs of lots of new investors coming in and calling up their friends and say I’ve discovered this new thing called the stock market and you can make money and it’s easy you know we’ve seen this movie before I don’t know when it’s going to end though as I said before and I’ll say again I’m not very good at Market Tomy I know it’s going to end but I’m not there yet uh it seems like there’s still a lot of money flowing into it but it’s mostly car carried by a number of stocks like Nvidia there’s massive hype around Nvidia still we see the CE of Nvidia going to events having to sign t-shirts and like he’s got Rockstar status these days like isn’t that a sign of a of a blowoff top like that we’re in a massive bubble well done well you’ve noticed yes that’s one of the signs these things happen towards the end towards the end of a ball Market everybody’s a rock star and everybody wants to talk to them and get their t-shirts on I didn’t know that part uh maybe I should fly over and get a t-shirt signed or something there’s a momento of the last great ball Market but I don’t see the end yet but again I am not good at Market timing so don’t rely on me during our last interview you said the the US Stock Market usually does well in an election year we’re halfway through that election year the stock market is doing well we’re at 5,300 points right now do do you see that continuing and do you see a massive drop off come November 9th maybe well it often does markets our us markets do fairly well during election years doesn’t have to happen needless to say it is happening it has happened there’s a lot of money around we don’t have serious inflation at the moment at least according to the books that they publish um I don’t know when it’s going to hit us I repeat I don’t know when I’m not good at this but I would imagine that by the end of this year early next year it will I’ll come to an end but let’s ask you you you do this every week you must have an answer that that is a good question because I see a lot of noise out there Jim and I’m still trying to filter it out and I’ve been trending to lean towards more of geopolitics these days than any of the other micro indicators right um You last our during our last conversation we’re talking about trade wars in the Middle East and the Red Sea I I’ve been paying attention more to that and how that could disrupt overall like supply chain but markets in in general I think that’s what I’ve been paying attention to well what I’m more worried about is it’s something accelerates somewhere yes if it’s just Hamas it’s not good it’s a disaster for for them and for us but it’s not World War III you know some one of these things could turn into gigantic War I don’t see that happening yet but I do know that in history when you have a lot of small Wars it often has a way to erupt into a bigger war and if that happens we’re going to certainly have a serious bare Market most markets don’t like war no 100% and uh sadly like again I keep coming back to gold in that regard geop geopolitically what like the gold price reacts to geopolitical events and the question is and I think we’ve discussed that last time as well Jim is like how geopolitical is the gold price because it is a flight to safety when you see you know when the bombs are flying and the missiles are flying you usually buy gold just to protect yourself like how much of that of the go current gold price is is that factor that geopolitical factor well I’ve got some gold never sold any gold I’ve been buying gold for many years I never sold any but I’m an old peasant I told you last time I think you know when things go wrong all of us old peasants want to have some gold in the closet we want some silver into the bed because no matter what happens we know that will help us well it it is a fantastic hedge it it it surely is against uncertainty here uh the question is what do you do with it like what are you protecting yourself from well if there’s serious chaos you can’t go down to the grocery store and buy bread or wheat or milk or anything unless you have something that the shopkeeper wants to take if you walk in there with paper money even from many countries the shopkeeper is going to say I’m sorry Jim I I don’t want your paper money right now I need something more substantial there is a crisis developing but if there’s a crisis most people Border guard shopkeepers everybody will take your gold or will take your silver and by the way I I don’t have bullion because if I go to the shopkeeper with a block of gold he’s going to say well it looks like gold but how do I know Jim let’s ask say it we don’t have time for asking it that’s why I prefer to say you know here’s a US silver dollar most people in the world would recognize it and we don’t have to ass say it and people usually don’t have change for a big gold bar uh as well that would be my problem right and even for coins I mean this is au silver dollar but that’s worth you know about $30 us which is a lot for a loaf of bread but at least maybe you can get a loaf for bread you know he won’t send you away no they won’t they won’t and uh coming from Germany like we we’ve seen it before I still have the images in my head wheel barrels full of cash just to buy a loaf of bread we still have that especially they all have that’s one of the first things they learn when they’re when they grow up Germany about those wheelbarrows so be sure you have a few things that you can use in the wheelbarrow it’s defin deeply ingrained in our DNA that’s one of the reasons Germans love gold and gold mining stocks for that matter as well and they like sound money they have you know when when I was a kid 40 or 50 years ago German currency was the soundest in the world or one of the soundest in the world because the Germans had it beaten into their heads history had beaten into their heads we have to have sound money have you ever wondered and just curious that’s a really random question I popped into my head if if the DOA mark would still exist today and not the Euro how how strong would the Doja Mark be because we’re extremely Frugal uh fiscally like we’re not spending left right and crazy yes we’re running a small deficit here on the balance sheet but our debt to GDP ratio is like 69 to one 69% or so so it’s not bad like where would the Doja Mark be right now just curious interesting thought exercise well the Tor mark would be one of the strongest currencies in Europe if not the strongest I mean just look out the window most countries Italy’s not running a very Sound Shop as you know most countries the British oh the British running up staggering debts most of the countries in Europe keep running up staggering debts and printing a lot of money so even if I mean if we did have the Doge Mark again it would be stronger than most now I tend to believe that as well like same with the Swiss frank although the Swiss frank will always Trump us probably just because of its neutrality I would assume well that’s when the Swiss Frank does have some advantages but you know right now the Swiss National Bank owns a lot of stocks believe it or not the Swiss frank is now backed by Apple backed by Microsoft when back when I was a kid the Swiss frank was backed purely by gold real gold in a real vault where the Swiss could go in there and look at it if they had to now believe it or not the Swiss frank is backed by gross American growth stocks it’s not the way it was before doesn’t sound very stable if you ask me especially based on what we’ve been discussing that went eventually going to hit a wall and the valuations of these growth stocks let’s take apple Nvidia are uh off the charts anyway well I assure you we’re going to have a bare Market again someday I know that Janet Yellen the secet of the treasur in the US says don’t worry we’ve solved all these problems well she’s went to a couple of very nice ivy league universities I Hope they’ve solved it but I don’t believe it for a minute how do you solve it like how how do you prevent a bare Market it’ll always be a bare Market it’s that’s how a market Works isn’t that like or am I getting something wrong here no of course you’re not for thousands of years we’ve hundreds of years decades we’ve always had periodically had bare markets if you can figure out a way to solve that problem you can be Secretary of the Treasury in the US you know she said they’ve solved it nobody’s solved it yet ever in history we would like to solve it but I don’t think human beings can solve that problem we’re all we’re all human beings and we all have those same weaknesses Jim you mentioned in our last interview that you haven’t been adding to your stack of bull bullion meaning your coins and gold and silver exposure at all has that changed over the last six months uh have you been adding have you been looking at it differently yes I have bought more of mainly silver but I bought I bought some more gold recently yes yes no I periodically buy gold and these days silver is cheaper on a historic basis so I have bought more silver than gold but I bought some more of both as I said to you before I’ve never sold my gold I’ve never sold any silver it’s my gold and silver under my bed and I hope that someday my children have my gold and silver I hope they’ll say gosh he must have been smart look at all this gold and silver any any potential trigger why you decided to to go into the market and buy silver again uh for example well it was down I mean silver was down over 50% a couple of weeks ago and gold was making all-time highs they don’t have to move together but they all of and have over the long term so if gold isn’t an all-time high it seems to me that Silver’s going to make an alltime too eventually so it was just cheaper so I bought some more silver let’s talk about that because silver was lagging gold quite a bit recently then it caught up I think it was up 35% um year I think it was a year to date 35% gold was up about 20 to 25% so it’s been outpacing gold a little bit but not based on historic averages usually the factor is like 3 to one where it’s outpaces gold let’s assume gold goes up 25% silver usually goes up 75% is that that lag and that price discount you’ve been talking about well I look at a bigger picture than that gold today or yesterday is making an alltime high silver is still down nearly 40% from its all-time high I’m looking at a much long a bigger picture if you will that does not mean I’m right that does not mean this is going to turn out to be right but that’s my way of looking at the world and gold and silver they don’t necessarily move together but they do move close together now Jim everything you say is of course gospel so we’re going to blindly follow you into what what what you’re doing no no fantastic no I appreciate you clarifying that um you talked about agriculture last time as well um that you’ve been looking into that and you you see that as a massively undervalued sector um certain Subs sectors within that space have moved tremendously cocoa for example coffee has been doing well um where do we stand on agriculture well it’s the same as what I said before agriculture is depressed on a historic basis you know nobody wants to be a farmer anymore nobody goes to University and studies agriculture these days you know the average age of farmers in America is over 50 years old in some countries it’s over higher than that even you know in Japan the average age of farmers is 66 or something world’s going to run out of farmers eventually unless something happens but I will tell you what has always happened in the past is when things get really bad nobody becomes a farmer Farms lag there’s no production so the price of agricultural prices go through the roof then young kids see Farmers driving Mercedes and Lamborghinis and so they become farmers and the cycle turn goes over again if everybody’s Rich who’s a farmer people want to be Farmers it seems like policies or Global policies are against farming these days as well wherever you look there’s Farmers protesting against government policies as well so nothing’s going for the farmers right now well no it has not been very good to be a farmer in many countries uh in the past few years look at Japan they’re all dying out uh for many reasons they’re dying out but look at pick any country you want and it is not you don’t see lots of people rushing to be Farmers because it has not been a great place to buy you’re not going to buy a Lamborghini probably your son might buy a Lamborghini if if you become a farmer but no farming has not been great yeah you’re not talking about tractor by the way right you’re talking about the sports car Lamborghini not the tractor Lamborghini well Lamborghini started there’s a tractor company you know and Mr Lamborghini went to Mr Ferrari at one point said I want to buy you off one of your far Ferraris and Mr Ferrari said I don’t sell my cars to Farmers to tractor to tractor drivers so Mr Lamborghini went and started making cars because he couldn’t buy one you know they look down on him now they don’t they don’t look down on him anymore but for a while who wants a Lamborghini that’s tractor now we know better fun cars to look at I tell you that like I’ve never driven one but uh I’m I’m I’m a man right I guess I’m attracted to sports cars it’s uh it’s in our DNA it’s in my DNA at least so um Jim back back to the market discussion I always like getting sidetracked with you it’s fun to chat um but where where do you see opportunities in this market right now um or let’s call it like opportunities maybe opportunities with the least amount of risk like we talked agriculture um are there any other markets segments that you look at well we’ve talked about agriculture most stock markets are are up or near alltime highs China’s not China’s one of the few markets that down for a variety of reasons so I have been looking at at China I own Chinese shares but I would like to buy more if I can find something Russia of course is a a market that’s attractive I cannot buy Russia because I’m an American and that’s War but if you find a place like that you might find Opportunities Jim I got to ask you since you’re based in Singapore I’m curious like what do the headlines look like in the papers these days like I spoke again bringing up Simon hunt here but he said that the headlines in in Chinese paper newspapers for example have gotten very aggressive and clear towards Taiwan for example like what I’m obviously biased here being in Germany by Western media like what does it look like in Singapore um the news like what’s the mix there well we just had a big defense military conference here where all the I’m going to say Western countries but they’re not just Western I mean many many countries Gather in Singapore every year they call it the I think they call it the shanga conference they all get together and talk about how to spend more money on war on guns and they just met in Singapore recently and and of course most of them act like China some kind of horrible threat some kind of horrible danger that’s what happened again and unfortunately as long as they keep talking that way if they keep you know if you keep poking your country in the eye eventually something might happen and they’re still poking China in the air in the eye and that that is what you’re seeing in financial media represent because you don’t hear that much like I keep looking at like the financial media like it’s the The Narrative is like always against Russia of course here but I’m just curious what the media landscape looks like what they’re focusing on I’m assuming it’s more China heavy well I’m not suggesting that they’re all pulling out rifles and guns and saying let’s blow up China today but if they’re talking about somebody at this conference this Shanghai shangra conference they talk about China as though China some I mean China comes to the conference China says no don’t worry we’re not a threat but they all talk they got to talk about somebody got to keep their jobs they got to spend more money you know the American Secretary of Defense wants to spend more money gotta talk about somebody he can’t talk about Portugal so China’s an obvious Target I I shouldn’t be quoting from Marvel movies Jim but uh I think it was Captain America said that America needs a common enemy so they can unite behind the like behind the you know the face they they need to they need a common enemy to be United all right and that’s what it seems like to me Russia at first and now we’re adding China to the mix we do need a common enemy so that we all can pull on one string like would you agree with that well what do I agree with I can look out the window I know it’s correct it’s a correct statement you can read newspapers you can watch TV this is happening all the time uh America since 19 since 1776 America when America was founded America’s been at War nearly every year except for 19 years people in Washington seem to like War I don’t and we’re not very good at it recently but America wants War somebody somebody in Washington wants War not me but somebody seems to want war it’s astonishing like Jim we got to sort of put put a bow around it all like we we got half a year ahead of us let’s let’s predict try predicting the markets a little bit until year end um where do you see things headed we we talked about the us being in an election year um but the market seems stagnant right now like it’s it’s hit its tops at 54 5500 in the S&P 500 um it’s come off since like do you see another you know leg higher coming or are we just sort of trading water until the US elections are over well I am not selling short yet so if it’s peaked I I’ve missed it um but I am wait I have a lot of cash my next move will I hope will be to sell shore if there’s the markets continue strong and there are opportunities I cannot imagine that I would buy shares again and certainly not the US not the way things are now and I presume that my next move will be to sell short if and when there’s more strength but but again I don’t know I’m not a market timer no the market will tell us obviously like we we can just look at the charts and then uh we make that decision but J I really appreciate your time it’s getting late in Singapore and I always appreciate chatting with you uh really really appreciate your time we can’t wait for our next update in about four months or so we we’ll see where we’re at bit bit closer to the US elections we’ll see where the market stands and uh and appreciate your time like I know you don’t have anything to sell so usually my last question is and it’s muscle memory I almost ask is like where can we find more of your work but uh you have nothing to sell I don’t have anything to sell but and I got to get to the Disco okay there you go it’s 10 much longer I won’t into the Disco unless I get there H phen yeah appreciate it no it’ll be fun you you’ll have a blast Jim thank you so much for your time and everybody else thank you so much for tuning in here to Sor financially tremendously appreciate chatting with Jim Rogers here again and catching up with him see where we’re at in the markets and we still have a ways to go till the US election let’s see when we hit that blowoff top like we’ve lost a bit of steam in the markets I’m curious where things are headed the next six months I think the current president is doing everything he can stimulating the economy to get reelected that’s what I’m seeing right now that’s my gut feeling that’s what I’m seeing in the headlines cure is where this takes the market if you like this conversation hit that subscribe button hit that like button and leave a comment we do want to hear from you what do you think of this conversation and uh we’ll be back with lots more here on Sor financially thank you so much for tuning in and talk [Music]

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Big Money Financial Investment Management Book Set

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