In a recent, high-stakes discussion, legendary macro investor Ray Dalio sat down with Tucker Carlson to dissect the invisible mechanics of the global economy. Dalio, who has spent 60 years betting on the future, argues that we aren’t just in a “bad patch”—we are in the fifth stage of a classic six-stage cycle that has led to the collapse of empires throughout history.

Below is a breakdown of the five forces driving this shift and why Dalio believes the “world order” as we know it is breaking down.

1. The Monetary Order: Debt, Printing, and the Rise of Gold

The first and most powerful force is the monetary system. Dalio explains that every system starts with little debt and high productivity (like the post-1945 era). Eventually, debt service payments rise faster than incomes, squeezing out spending.

When governments can’t pay their bills, they have two choices: default or print money. They almost always choose to print, which devalues the currency. Dalio notes that as trust in “fiat” (paper) money fades, central banks and individuals alike return to “hard money.”

“Gold is the one asset you can have that’s not somebody else’s liability. You don’t have to get money from someone else to make it good.” — Ray Dalio

If you are looking to diversify into the “non-fiat” assets Dalio mentions, you can explore these options:

• 1 oz Gold Bars & 1 oz Gold Rounds

• 1 oz Silver Bars & 1 oz Silver Rounds

2. Domestic Political Order: The Death of Compromise

The second force is the breakdown of internal politics. History shows that when wealth gaps become extreme, and the system feels “rigged,” populism emerges on both the left and the right.

• The Symptom: A lack of willingness to accept loss or compromise.

• The History: In the 1930s, four democracies chose to become autocracies because their internal polarity was so great that the system simply ceased to function.

• The Result: People stop seeing each other as humans and start seeing “stereotypes.” At this point, Dalio says, people do one of three things: Pick a side and fight, keep their head down, or flee.

3. Geopolitical Order: The Breakdown of Rule-Based Systems

After World War II, a multilateral system was created (UN, WTO, World Court) to resolve disputes. However, Dalio points out a fundamental flaw: Power rules. If the system no longer serves the interests of the most powerful, it breaks.

Today, we see rising powers (like China) challenging existing powers (the US). Because there is no “World Court” with actual enforcement power over superpowers, these conflicts are resolved through tests of power—economic, technological, and eventually, military.

4. Acts of Nature and 5. New Technologies

While we focus on politics, Dalio reminds us that Acts of Nature—pandemics, droughts, and floods—have historically killed more people than wars. Simultaneously, the Tech War is reaching a fever pitch. Whoever wins the race for AI and advanced technology will likely win the economic and geopolitical war. Where Are We Now? (Stage 5 of 6)

Dalio places the United States in Stage 5: the brink of great disorder.

• Stage 5: Large wealth gaps, high debt, and intense internal conflict.

• Stage 6: The actual breaking of the order (civil war or external war).

While he isn’t “casting judgment,” he notes that the mechanics are moving in a very specific direction. When the central bank is forced to print money to buy the government’s own debt, the value of that money inevitably falls relative to assets like Gold and Silver.

The Big Money Takeaway

Dalio’s message is dispassionate: the “machine” of history is working as it always has. For the individual, the lesson is clear—recognize the symptoms of the cycle, understand that the “norm” you’ve lived in is not permanent, and protect your wealth accordingly.