Henrik Zeberg Latest – Gold Going To $1250???

June 6, 2024

Henrik Zeberg Latest – Gold Going To $1250???

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[Music] hi Henrik thank you very much for joining us today how are things in Copenhagen they are great here fantastic the the spring is here so um so what’s not to like I recently read that Copenhagen is the most bike friendly city in Europe it has a population of 600,000 people but more than 7 100,000 bikes and bikes actually outnumber cars 5 to one are you a big cyclist yeah I am a big cyclist uh I uh so I I do Road biking so not so much for transportation but uh which I think is is what the most people do but um but I like it for for yeah to to to sports to um to get get around also and to go see the um the also areas outside of Copenhagen and I was recently in Amsterdam that’s another bik crazy City I believe the population is around 800,000 and they actually have 1.4 million bikes if you can believe that yeah okay most of them are in the bottom of the canals we have problems with that that’s actually there I think they’re a lot that gets stolen unfortunately also because you have so many bikes here and um but um so so that’s a no it’s funny you mentioned that about the canals because they actually have a city crew and that’s their full-time job is pulling bikes out of the canal and I think they told us when we went on one of these uh t of the canal they said 8,000 bikes a year are thrown into the canals yeah yeah no it’s a lot it’s like I don’t know if it’s the same here with the probably so let’s move on now and I want to get your thoughts on the the economy and the financial markets and the last time we spoke was in early January so five months ago and a lot has happened since that time and at that time you thought we were you were quite bullish you said we were in a Goldilocks economy the GDP was strong and it’s still is unemployment was very low inflation was approaching the 2% Target rate and you were expecting a massive rally and all risk assets the S&P the NASDAQ Bitcoin followed by a massive collapse in financial markets and all Financial assets and you said the resulting sess recession would be worse than anything we’ve seen since 1929 and the S&P at that time when we last spoke in January was around 47 100 it’s now around 5,300 so uh we’re still about 15% away from your target but where do you stand now what’s your take on on the economy and also the financial markets hi I hope you’re enjoying the interview one of the reasons we do these interviews is to help you understand what’s happening in the global economy and also how to prepare for it and during times of uncertainty and also NeverEnding inflation like we’re going through right now investing in physical gold is one way to protect your portfolio against inflation if you would like to learn more about gold and how it can benefit your portfolio visit hard assets alliance.com hard assets Alliance is a trusted platform that is used by over 100,000 institutional and Retail investors once again that’s hard assets alliance.com there’s a link below in the show notes now back to the interview so I I you know the economy right now if you look at it right now the economy is strong and why is the economy strong it’s because you know we we have the labor market uh the labor market is strong we we saw the uh initial claims coming out yesterday still very low uh that that number we need to see that move up but we’re we’re seeing that the number of open positions are coming down and especially if you take that in in terms of you know how the the number of unemployed uh so so we’re starting to see some deterioration in the in the labor market uh and we’re also seeing more more uh which is is was even more severe the the the deterioration amongst the consumer because the consumer right now is struggling with the high uh interest payments and the interest payments is what every time kills the the business cycle so when you have an upturn you have a a bull market you have a economy that is flourishing it’s always killed by the the high interest rate which the consumer has to pay and they will then pull back on consumption and what you start to see now is the credit card delinquents is starting to come up and they come up in a in a with a pace that we have only seen in into the financial crisis uh so it’s actually you know kind of tour two two-headed tier here that you can see that you you know on the surface it looks good and you look you see the stock market is up like what I’ve also predicted but we’re seeing the deterioration down below and that is what is going to play out eventually so let’s look at the economy a little bit deeper because once again when you look at the the economy it looks very strong even though the QD uh the q1 GDP number came in a little bit weak than expected it came in at 1.6% versus expectations of 2.4% so maybe we are seeing a bit of a slow down here it’s going to be interesting to see what the Q2 number is like but when you look at the jobless numbers are it’s the same sort of thing we’ve had 25 consecutive quarters of unemployment below 4% and the last time we saw that was 1969 so the indicators are showing a very strong economy and I know you just mentioned that they you think the consumer is starting to feel some pain but maybe you can give us a little more detail about what indicators you’re looking at that leads you to believe that the economy is a lot weaker than we are led to believe it is yeah sure so first of all I have a uh you know a methodology a model that I use and uh and the it’s based on the uh on the conference board data leading indicators coincident indicators slacking indicators um and uh I have a model where you know every time we’ve seen a recession signal coming from the leading indic cases we will actually see that a recession sets in eventually that has flashed that flashed already early 23 and then people say yeah but then it’s all over and the conference board by the way have also you know given up and said now we’re just continuing uh high or that we not they don’t expected a recession in 24 any longer well I don’t see it like that I I think the that as I’ve said before I think Titanic has hit the iceberg uh we still have U the yields the yield spread is still um inverted and and I mean it’s interesting to see that people think yeah it’s uh you know everything is fine but the yields are you know the the 10 year is now still uh below the the twoe I mean that that’s interesting right and normally when we see that when we see the yield inversion we have you know a situation where that will deteriorate and and that is what I think we’re seeing right now we we we’re just in that zone where the uh where in in Road Runner where you have the coyote running off the cliff and then all of a sudden realizing that there is no ground beneath it and then it’s starts to drop and I think we’re we are in that zone it can last for some time and and and we I can understand you know companies that have been building up capacities coming out of Corona with all the stimulus coming in artificial stimulus prices went up and they actually did well and you know a lot of companies were outperforming targets and they said we have to build capacity and when you did that back you know just year and a half ago then you will probably be a little more reluctant to have to scale that down again so you don’t start to lay off laying off people immediately when you don’t get the demand and if you look at the real sales numbers they’re not great they’re not awful at yet but they are not great so if we just look at it we’re saying yeah well are we going up from here or are we going down and I’m just saying the the consumers right now is not right now the consumer is what drives the the business cycle and they are struggling and they are struggling with the high payments rates uh interest payments uh and uh and that uh you know is is is is hurting consumption and that will eventually then flow into the into the businesses that will start to lay off jobs that we do not see it yet is not the same as saying it will not happen and I think this is exactly what we see every time before a recession we see the same thing we have the people saying oh now we have a soft Landing go back in before the financial crisis you’ll see exactly those words just in 2007 and even in 2008 uh and then it’s you look at it and you say where is the soft Landing because interest payments are still high interest rates are still High the interest payments are so high for the consumer so why is it really that you think that it’s so good and as I said also you start to see it now in the credit card Del lences you start to see it in the in also in other loans types uh the car loans also where you also start to see Del lences coming up like strongly up so I think people are look a little too do not really look under the hood when they when they check it out so Titanic has hit the iceberg and unfortunately there’s not much to be done about at this point so before I ask you about uh some of the comments you just made I got to bring up the fact that the uh I haven’t thought about that show The Road Runner for many many decades used to watch that when I was a kid I used to hate that show because he could never catch the Road Runner and they never used to talk either that would all that also d drove me crazy so all right I want to ask you about the yield curve okay and in in the past this inverted yield curve has been a great predictor of recessions but it’s been inverted now for over 660 days the longest streak ever it actually took out a previous record that um has been in place months ago I think even yeah so do you think this syndicator is still reliable does it matter anymore absolutely absolutely and this is where this time is not different this time is just bigger and the reason why this time is bigger is because we have a massive Distortion of investment of of money so when you’ve been throwing money on every over the last 16 years and every time you’ve had a problem let’s throw money at it well then you start to get Distortion in the market which means that people investors are seeking yields so when you look to private Equity companies they have been you know the partners that have been you desperately desperately searching for places to go with their money and say well what can we do where can we invest give me some you know crazy ideas and then they go and they put their money in all of the sorts of you know businesses and they have can keep putting pouring money into that uh if you look to the whole crypto Market I’m I’m massively bullish the crypto right now and I hold a lot of crypto mostly of my investment my portfolio is in crypto related assets um so I’m not saying it’s right now but I’m saying that’s is a distortion of money that’s speculation when people starting to sit and talk about Solana versus ethereum versus something else that is speculation so and it’s all yielding zero it’s all yielding zero so that is the very definition of the bubble and I when that when when when the hits the fans so to speak when when we starting to see the recession coming out for real then people say yeah but the FED they will just they will just you know print again so so they will save the day well what if that that free lunch is not available anymore it’s not possible to do so because if you do that you can trigger inflation again and that is what I’m starting to see that you know you have a situation where inflation will be coming down but if they do it you as a person in order for letting the money printing help you you need to take on that extra loan to go buy that car you need to to to spend extra money but but you’ve been hurt so bad by the inflation and by the high interest rates so you’re saying you know what maybe that extra check that is coming in or the the money that I save on my house loan because the interest rates are coming have declined or Fall Fallen why do we not save that a little and we let’s see what how you know times are playing out and if that happens if that psychological effect is happening then you do not get the trickle down effect that quantitive easing or the the monetary stimulus is based on and that then you have another problem for because then you do not see the bounce in the market then you may see the the the money starts to chase Investments or chase things so you can see you know crazy moves in the um in in certain assets but it will not help the real Market which is the labor market and the housing market necessarily so I think we have a you know a situation in front of us where we we we will see a you know very bad uh defl in deflationary in Period caused by a recession that sets in by Q4 this year so I recently saw an interview with Jeffrey gunlock uh double line and he was saying something very similar he was also surprised we haven’t seen a recession yet and he thinks it has to do with this excessive money uh printing that we’ve seen here in the last few years years I believe he said prior to the pandemic there was $4 trillion in circulation and now it’s around 20 trillion so these massive distortions have just I guess thrown everything out of line right so it’s very hard to predict um where things are going yeah thoughts on that I agree with that absolutely I agree with that that perspective so let’s talk about the FED now and I know the last time we spoke you told me you don’t care about the fed and what the fed’s doing but I wanted to discuss it because of the policy errors that the FED has made and it’s because of these errors that we find ourselves in this mess that we’re currently in and the first one was when they said inflation was transitory in 2021 and then by 2022 they realized oh my God we got a serious problem here so they started lifting interest rates at the fastest rate we’ve ever seen in in the history of the US but do you think they’re making another policy error here that maybe the economy is a lot stronger than we think it is maybe inflation is not going to come down to that 2% Target level and it’s going to heat up again and therefore um they’re not they’re not going to cut interest rates but they’re going to maybe increase interest rates come 2025 is that a risk um I I don’t know what the FED will do I mean this is this is where but but I don’t see that happening I mean there are so many indications that we are all ready now that the the monetary polic right now is rather strict even though the financial conditions are easing easing but if they look at the real economy and they look at the housing market then look at the the the consumers again well if they do that then they will for sure strangle the child so to speak they will still they will strangle anything that that that needs to be um that that that needs to grow I mean they that would be a policy mistake you know and I think right now actually that they are being also too too um too morish let’s say uh there’s if they look into again the consumers and the way they struggle again they are right now putting into the minds of the consumer the future uh you know behavioral uh patterns that the consumer is going to follow because they will be so you know more and more scared of actually spending the money that you know eventually become more loose when the monetary policy starts to become you know more eased again when when the business cycle turns over so I think I think we are we we’re seeing that they are yeah making a mistake but but they will follow the the market yields when they start to drop and the market yields will follow when down when we start to see the uh the coincident indicators which is the labor market starting to Cline so we started we saw the initial claims last week we saw that they were a little higher than expected now this week they were down again um so we need to see that that slowdown but as I see it it’s coming uh and we the the again I’m I’m willing people are saying yeah but you said that was you know in mid of of 24 and now it’s late and I say yeah but the thing is sometimes things take a little longer the the the the the point is the market yield inversion is something that we can use to time the the the recession on and normally we see 12 to 15 months from the bottom of the market yield inversion that means as mostly inverted to the onset of the recession that yield invers that was 12 to 15 months that yield inversion was at the peak uh in uh June of last year and now we are in May this year so we still got a couple of months before in a normal cycle we should see the recession uh so we are like 11 months in I’m saying 12 to 15 so four five months and it could be even more because it’s been massively inverted this time so the FED will of course try to react and they’ve done that before they will try to react to this H I think they’re making a mistake of being as hawkish as they are now because they are they got too scared of the Gen coming out of the bottle but the thing is with the recessionary impulse that I see is coming you actually need to start you know soften that blow already now or they will try to chase it and then it’ll be too late so I think they’re being too restricted right now to Haus right now yeah you mentioned of both the the US consumer and how well they’re doing or not well they’re doing and I thought it was interesting when we saw numbers out of Starbucks here a few weeks ago and they missed their numbers significantly same store sales in the US were down 3% in China they were down 11% those two markets represent 60% of total revenues but I know it’s just one data point but you got to wonder if somebody’s now willing to spend $7 on a frappuccino what else is yeah happening right like yeah they really might be starting to feel some pain and it’s going to be interesting to see what happens here in the coming months and how active they are just in terms of travel um yeah absolutely and and also if you look at the excess savings that you had that the consumers had after after the cor Corona and you see you saw also the uh yeah again the the credit card uh delinquencies that we that I talked about earlier if you start to look at that you will actually see that is of course the weaker part of the of the consumers is the young people and the ones that I do not have as much that will start where we’ll start to see this coming to and and and that is we’re actually seeing that right now I mean there the similarities to the to the kind of move that we saw in before 2008 uh or the onset in 2007 in December of the recession there is is similar to what we see now so yes it’s not about pointing out a specific time the date you know this year and saying this is when the recession will set in it’s about looking at the pattern and say are we actually seeing a soft Landing as the FED is saying or are we seeing that they do not the consumers cannot afford another cappuccino or Frappuccino or whatever and I think we’re seeing exactly that that is the weaker part of the consumer uh chain that we are seeing maybe getting hurt first and it’s hurting everybody I can tell you you it’s so easy to say that a lot of people that I know but but obviously a lot of people here in Denmark as well and Europe you can see that they are also you know struggling with the high interest rates that we have so Ordinary People are hurt by this and this is bringing consumption down which is hurting the economy yeah yeah I I am based in Tron and I’ll tell you I’m feeling pain and I know so many people are and another interesting uh point about Toronto and Canada is that we when it comes to the housing market we can only get a three-year or five-year mortgage and so a lot of people are going to be renewing or refinancing their mortgage here in the coming months and um I recently had a conversation with David Rosenberg and he thinks we’re going to see a major reset in in the housing Canadian housing market because of this these mortgage payments going up significantly yeah and and and and here we have the same like we have one year or two years or three years and five years you can do it differently but the the the shortest one have been refinanced a few times but and and I have like that because I think the rates are going to come down so that’s why you know when you have a mortgage you probably you know Finance like that and then um and you can see that they are you know they have been stubbornly high H will they come down yes they will start to decline but uh but it’s for now it’s just hurting the people who hold these and needs to refinance and and getting and get a new loan loan so let’s go through some of your target prices okay and I want to begin with the S&P it’s currently trading around 5300 your target is 6,100 is that still the case 61 to 62 yeah and can you put a timeline on that so my my timeline for now is that I I see that the recession probably sets in uh by Q4 uh this year uh could be October November or December and I think the stock market will toop out two months before that so that means uh Q3 uh um potentially October so but but right now it’s it’s August September uh that is my my potentially September as the the timeline for that that is the best I would not so call guess but best estimation based on what I see there is nothing that tells me that we are we should go above this we have on on various assets we start to see weaknesses come in we start to see weakness in in in Europe we start to see weakness in in Asia in in the Nik uh in the Nifty as well uh so so I think you’re going to see the top the stop the top in the stock market in in Asia and Europe setting in before you see in the EUR in the US and you’re going to see a rotation of uh capital from Europe from Asia into the US so that’s why I’m saying I’m not bullish across all markets I’m bullish the US market at this point I’m bullish small caps because I also think there will be a rotation from from large caps into small caps as we get into the Final Phase of of this uh business cycle so still bullish on the S&P and the NASDAQ in the short term are going into September October now what about Bitcoin it’s currently trading somewhere around 65 to 70,000 uh it’s up about 60% on the Year what’s your take on bitcoin well I I still hold the same I think it was the same in January also I said 110 to 115,000 on on bitcoin and and and I stick to that I think we’re um hours or days away from a big move starting again we had a big move on Monday I think that was just the beginning now we’ve been been consolidating for a few days and I think we’re going to see uh a very very big move coming into um into to to Mid June um but but you know an uptrend with uh with with with consolidations or pullbacks into again the same timeline as timeline as with the with the with the stock market so uh again August to October I would say this this is the timeline now it’s more about the levels that I need to see I need to see above 105,000 for Bitcoin 110,000 and then I need to see the S&P around 6,000 then I will start to become more worried this these are the levels uh timeline wise Q3 and it’s interesting to see Bitcoin had had a massive move this year even after a big move last year I think it was up 160% but it’s receiving a lot of legitimacy here the with the SEC approving the ETFs the SEC just approved an ETF for ethereum so that’s going to create a lot of interest in the space and it my sense is not that I I’m an expert on bitcoin but it looks like it’s been consolidating after this whole having process and it could be getting ready to go again so once again bullish on S&P bullish on the NASDAQ bullish on the Bitcoin let’s talk about gold now I’m a big believer in Gold I always have five to 10% of my portfolio allocated toward gold uh the last time we spoke it was around $2,000 an ounce now it’s around $2,400 an ounce it’s up 12% on the Year what’s your take on gold here in the coming months hi I hope you’re enjoying the interview one way I use to protect my portfolio against the constant erosion of inflation is with physical gold and if you would like to learn more about the benefits of owning gold and how to buy and how to store it visit hard assets alliance.com hard assets Alliance is a trusted platform with over $3 billion in assets and it’s used by over 100,000 institutional and Retail clients they offer American Eagles Canadian Maples so African Krueger and also gold bars once again that’s her assets alliance.com there’s a link below in the show notes now back to the interview my take is that uh I think gold is the outlier if you look at the rest of the precious matchs if you look at padium you look at Platinum you look at Silver they are all lagging you know tremendously gold or gold is trying to lead uh I think I think what you’re seeing is that everybody speaks of gold and says oh gold is uh you know this is where you need to be but if you’re going into the kind of recession that I’m looking at which will also be a banking crisis and a liquidity crisis you do not want to hold gold because the finest job for gold is to provide liquidity in the in the hour when you need liquidity that is why people are so you know whole gold into a crisis it’s not because it’s it’s something that you you you want to you know invest in because it’s a it’s not an investment you know it why why hold something which which yields you know zero you want to you want to invest in it the moment the fit gets in that I agree on but if you have a six to n months uh of of decline in the market or strong decline like what we had in uh 2008 from March to uh September or March to October you had gold Drop Like 34% silver drop 60% and it does that’s because you don’t you don’t want to hold that because you need your liquidity you need liquidity to pay off debt uh this this is the kind of scenario that I I’m that I’m envisioning here and I don’t think uh gold is leading here I think gold has been been been overbought by a lot of people on the on the belief that this is what is happening and now we’re going to see inflation but I think when when the opposite actually shows up and you can start to see people also selling off goals to pawn shops and and the likes because the consumer is struggling they need liquidity they need you know US dollars so even though I’m I’m bear is the dollar right now I think gold will do not do well into that uh into the next coming weeks and months but I can still say we could meet in a couple months time and could we then have seen gold a little higher than now yes but is something that I would invest into now because of the of the narrative that gold is leading gold silver and the rest no because normally actually you need to see gold s sorry miners Silver Platinum and padium also following what gold is doing and they do not actually the miners are down a lot and you start to see also that they could also put in the top at this point here so I think gold has been overbought um and yes I’ve been barrass for some time I still say that it could have a very large drop and I would not think it would be uh you know unrealistic to think that it it drops like what it did into the financial crisis and maybe even more than that so so I still stick to around the 1,250 yes and gold is interesting in here I will have to say I mean it’s well documented central banks have been large buyers in the last couple of years I believe in 2022 and also 23 they bought approximately 25% of all production so it’s obvious the central banks are out there buying it in bidding it higher and I guess the other thing too is especially after the invasion of Ukraine of course the US um confiscated a lot of Russian assets so a lot of other countries are saying okay what happens if you know they do that to us what are we going to do so there’s speculation the central banks are buying it for this reason and China is one of those Central Bank buyers huge buyers so um I guess the other point I would also make is even though Gold’s tra at 2400 bucks an ounce the stocks are not reflecting that price and um I haven’t seen any I haven’t seen any research recently as to what price they’re discounting but there’s no way it’s 2 2400 bucks I’d be surprised if it was even 2,000 no I agree with that I completely agree with that and that’s that’s why I think it’s been overboard on all this with the speculation on this and again would I hold if I had you know cash of money here and I’ll say okay do I want to invest that in gold or do I want to invest it in something that is that I think is in in an uptrend here that moves faster I would rather put it into the NASDAQ right now or into uh into small Caps or into Bitcoin or into even into crypto at this point so and then if I’m right also that we’re going to see a a dollar strong dollar into a recession and a liquidity crisis would I hold gold then no I would not but would I hold it the moment the fit steps back in and say okay now things are and we are you know far away from that yet we I mean that that’s way into 25 uh yes absolutely that’s the bottom end goal that’s when I want to hold it because that’s when the new the new phase starts but I think people are are maybe trying to front run something here which could take some time before it unfolds and actually you could see a decline first but I’m I’m getting ready for that also the moment I mean we we have I have a gold uh list of gold miners that I want to buy into but they just haven’t seen the right levels yet and I I think gold needs to come down first so let’s also talk about oil oil I I have to admit I’m quite surprised oil isn’t higher it’s currently trading somewhere 75 to 80 bucks a barrel WTI and um I think there’s a lot of manipulation going on within the markets of course the Biden Administration wants to keep the oil price lower as he goes into an election and uh then you got the Saudis they want the oil price higher the Russians want the oil price higher so who really knows what’s going on there but what’s your take on oil well from a market perspective you could say that if you have an economy that is slowing then you you you oil is is you know the very indicator of that so so if if the if everything was accelerating here and also inflation was was to accelerate you would see oil being up a lot more but but I don’t see that I mean I mean we we have you were talking about the GDP numbers and saying yeah but actually they have been declining for some time and if you the only thing that were up really now is the the PMI numbers they’re like oh wow fantastic things are you know good and great uh um I think uh I think the the the you know the truth is some is is something else and that is that we’re seeing a slow deterioration of the economy that means that people will drive less miles that means that you know they will less oil will be needed and that’s why we see the the downward demand pressure uh so so demand is coming down you can see that also in China it’s actually rather obvious there that you have a demand decline there so so that means that oil price has to come down um and and and that is what we what we see I think but but obviously there can be some you know also political reason for it but um but I think that is the the main driver of it that’s really because of the um of of of the uh the Slowdown of the economy and that’s not something that happened we have to think of the economy as a as a super tanker it really does not turn like a speed boat and I think that is where a lot of analysts and you know Medias and so on think oh we saw this and now we see this and so they jump to conclusions what you need to see is it’s a slow slow low turning you know boat uh ship that that and it takes a long time and sometimes it takes longer depending on how big the distortions are and all that but but the trend for oil is down and I still think you’re going to see a very large decline again uh I I still hold the the gold go go below $20 maybe all the way down to $10 again into a recession well that would be a significant pullback so I always enjoy asking people what the price of gas is wherever they’re located what’s the price of gas in Copenhagen how much are you paying a liter oh man I don’t even know I don’t have a car these days so I don’t I drive we have the Metro System here and and we have my the bike also as you said I don’t I don’t use the the the the car because it’s such a small in city where the infrastructure is so well so great so um so I don’t know it’s um but it’s can’t I was a couple of dollars or something like that so a little more than two and a half doll dollars I think so something like that that’s high so you caught me there I’m in Toronto and I’m paying a160 a liter which is probably close to $6 a gallon um yeah so I thought that we were paying high prices but I guess it’s significantly higher in Denmark yeah that’s $2 and a half dollars for uh for just a leader yeah correct so um I don’t know it’s always amazing how the gas price is different regardless like even in the state of Michigan which which is right beside the province of Ontario they’re paying $3 a gallon okay so it’s like 50% cheaper than what we’re paying here in in Ontario yeah yeah yeah no but that means a lot and that’s you know for again for the consumer it’s h it’s very important where where the gas prices are okay so I want to look at a possible Catalyst for what’s going to take this Market lower and I know you were talking about the debt level so I want to have a deeper discussion there and in 2000 the US had a budget surplus of $123 billion now in 2024 the US has a deficit of 1.7 trillion also in the year 2000 the national debt was $5 trillion now it’s $35 trillion and it’s increasing by 1 trillion every 100 days if you can believe that and of course we have billions of dollars that will be coming due here in the coming months and years uh which the federal government will have to refinance at significantly higher interest rates and that debt which is currently 2550 basis points is going to be significantly higher at 3 or 4% but do you think this could be uh another possible scenario that will really take the market lower that a realization that these debt levels can’t be sustained and the interest payments associated with these debt levels can’t be sustained see that would happen in a world where the interest rates were going up so if I was believe in in a situation where we starting to see INF inflation coming up again or interest rates coming up I would think that would happen uh um so if you’re talking about the next year year and a half two years I don’t think this is the going to be the trigger of the the crisis I’m going to think that the trigger of the crisis this time around will be the the consumers again as I spoke of and uh but if you look at the debt obviously then something is going to has to change because we cannot see that this this is you know unsustainable obviously so um I think if I’m right and now this becomes a little more you know speculative probably what people will say but I think you’re going to see um a crisis now where the recession will come in as a normal part of the business cycle the consumer you know hurting and then start to spend and all of a sudden we we get these negative uh TTP numbers the FED will then observe it for a little while then say okay now we need to jump in they will jump in and they will do what they do they’ve done many times is that they will print money or they will do QE and they’ll do their magic uh and then they will uh get a bounce in the market but I think as I said I think there is a change a fundamental shift which makes would make the consumer not starting to spend or not trying to take out that extra loan or whatever it will be so there will be more resilience in in resilient in in um yeah taking on more depb and debt and and uh and also um uh spending money which which will mean that the economy will suffer for longer and in that world I could see that that money comes in will start to you know circulate faster and I could see that we could see a speculate speculative um you know uh environment develop where you see that the inflation could start to move up that could be a stagflationary world and that’s also why I would would hold gold at that point I think we could see stagflation coming out as a second phase of this crisis so now you are year and a half two years down the road um I think that’s the moment when we could start we we would see that there could be some problems uh with with debt uh because obviously if the if you start to see deflation interest rates will come up and you will see also that uh the debt uh the deficits will become much much bigger not just in the US but around the world and and that is where you you cannot just pour money at it any longer and that will be the you know the real um you know uh eye opener for a lot of people that you know you cannot save any decline just by pouring money on it so at that point I think we’re going to have to deal with the debt levels and and that will probably be long along the lines of some some sort of some sort of um of monetary reset or whatever it’s going to be they’re going to do something you know on a bigger scale that I’m not too clever clever enough to understand or to to to do uh but but I think they were going to do something that uh will will you know along the lines of with the Breton Woods back in 1944 also this could align with the whole geopolitical situation with the bricks and all that I could easily see that we could get into s you know a new kind of you know where they will say we actually going to go after um uh you know black money that has been been earned through uh you know crimes or black money or whatever and then they will actually what they do is that they will try to restructure the whole thing um so because obviously the path we see right now is unsustainable and it’s just we just need the the the the trigger for I don’t think that will it will not be the trigger itself at least it will not be told seen like that but but there’s something will need to be done about this uh this development what are your thoughts on Central Bank digital currencies well I um I think it’s something that you know they all considering I I think it’s and I think it’s something that by the end of the monetary reset that I talk of talked about here is something where where that will be part of the solution uh I think that the only way that you can recreate credibility to the financial not to the monetary system to the to money by that time especially if you have a stat inflation will be to create more transparency and now I know that a lot of defi crypto people will not like what I’m saying but I think actually the whole transparency part of the crypto will be what is driving um you know the that you know the uh the Central Bank digital currency setup and I think they will outperform and they will you know do not want to have any competition to that so I think a lot of cryptos at that point if they did were not already crashed by by stagflation and deflation well when when that comes out uh I think we’re going to have a cleanup in in cryptool land so I think I think it’s a it’s something that is going to come it’s going to come as part of the uh of the of the restructuring and of the monetary reset and I know that ECB is already working on along these lines so so it’s it’s it’s coming it’s coming governments always want Total Control one more time sorry governments always want Total Control yeah absolutely yeah 100% And especially if things are getting out of control then they will do everything to get it back into control so let’s summarize everything you have mentioned and um I want to make sure I got this correct Okay so we’ve had massive amounts of money Printing and the money supply has doubled in the last four years and this has resulted in inflation that we haven’t seen in 40 years the FED is trying to fight this inflation with the sharpest increase in interest rates in the history of the financial markets they’ve gone up uh 11 times over 16 months and with this explosion in interest rates it’s caused a lot of shocks throughout the system or it will create a lot of shocks throughout the financial systems with both corporations and also personal spending and personal um uh wealth and you think this slowdown that we’re going to see from corporations and also from the consumer that this is going to cause the FED to act quickly and they’re going to has to start slashing interest rates to stimulate the economy again but by the time they start doing that you think it’s going to be too late too little too late and it’s always too late they always come they always say that they are you know ready for it but it’s too late and I think as I said also I think they should be looking into it already now if they wanted more of a soft landing and and just to go through your target prices again so the S&P is currently trading around 5,300 you think it’s going to go up to 6,100 by sometime in Q3 uh Bitcoin currently trading around 70,000 you think that could hit as high as 115,000 by the same sort of time period gold you’re negative on gold even though it’s trading around 2400 it might get up to 2700 but ultimately you see it going significantly lower down to 1,200 and oil once again you’re also negative there it’s currently trading around $80 a barrel you see that also collapsing maybe down to $20 a barrel do I have all of that right yes and again we have to remember that it’s never a straight line so when I say go down to that obviously you can see SP you can see bounces and all that but but I’ll say Yeah in the bigger terms I could see gold will sorry both gold and and oil will will decline into a recessionary um outcome yeah so having said all that how do you what do what are you suggesting to investors how do they prepare for all of this so right now of course in the next four five six months you want to stay long and you want to capitalize on this big move and both the S&P the NASDAQ and Bitcoin if you play cryptos but what about after that what do you suggest invting investors do well I I you know even though we talked about debt you know I think bonds will be a fantastic place to be too high out in the deflationary part because the interest rates will come down and I think we’ll uh we you’ll see fantastic Moves In in TLT uh I think uh dollar being Long Dollar vers against any any pair around the world I I know I prefer against the Euro because I think the Euro will have structural problems uh so I think that that pair could you know see a again we’re not talking right now we’re talking later because right now I think actually the Euro will actually strengthen against the dollar for some some time uh into August August or September but but after that I will be holding um uh dollars against you know against any currency and maybe even you know do some trading there on that and uh yeah and that will be what you what I would do into the um into the uh to the recession and the market decline because there will may be people that want to short the market but I think the market volatility there is would be yeah there will be a lot of volatility and then you need to be able to stomach that and I think a more easy ride will be best for me there when the FED get back in gets back in I think that’s that’s the time time for for gold for gold miners and the likes and uh and we are um yeah we just we just need to see that the onset of the recession first well Henrik that was a fascinating discussion and as we wrap up if someone would like to follow you or learn more about the various services that you offer where can they go so I think that we should go to the my my my my Twitter uh account Henrik seberg and they can find a lot of also links there to to various websites and and also the C report and to uh to uh also uh Swiss block where I also I’m head of macro and uh so so there will be many opportunities to find me you know on different pages well Henrik once again that was a great discussion I want to thank you very much for spending time with us today thank you very much for Hing on [Music]

How To Invest In The Metals Market in 2024

The metals market has long been a cornerstone of a diversified investment portfolio.

Metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium offer not only tangible value but also serve as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

As we step into 2024, the metals market presents both challenges and opportunities for investors.

This comprehensive guide will help you navigate the intricacies of investing in metals, offering strategies to maximize your returns and mitigate risks.

Understanding the Metals Market

The metals market is divided into two main categories: precious metals and industrial metals.

Precious metals include gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, which are often seen as stores of value and safe-haven assets.

Industrial metals, such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, are crucial for manufacturing and infrastructure development.

Gold: Often regarded as the ultimate safe-haven asset, gold is a preferred choice for investors seeking to protect their wealth during economic downturns. Its value tends to rise when other investments falter, making it a reliable hedge against market volatility.
Silver: Silver is unique in that it straddles both precious and industrial metal categories. It is used in various industries, including electronics and solar energy, which means its price can be influenced by both market sentiment and industrial demand.
Platinum and Palladium: These metals are primarily used in the automotive industry for catalytic converters. Their prices are heavily influenced by automotive production rates and innovations in emissions technology.
Industrial Metals: Metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel are essential for construction, electronics, and energy infrastructure. Investing in these metals can offer substantial returns as global demand for infrastructure and technology continues to grow.

Why Invest in Metals in 2024?

Several factors make 2024 an intriguing year for metals investment:

Economic Uncertainty: Global economic instability, geopolitical tensions, and potential market corrections could drive investors toward the relative safety of precious metals.
Technological Advancements: The increased demand for industrial metals throughout the world.
Inflation Hedge: With inflation rates fluctuating globally, metals offer a tangible asset that can help preserve purchasing power.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Ongoing supply chain issues can impact metal availability, driving up prices and creating investment opportunities.

How to Invest in Metals

There are several ways to invest in the metals market, each with its own set of advantages and risks:

Physical Metals: Purchasing physical metals, such as bullion bars and coins, is a straightforward way to invest. This method provides direct ownership but comes with storage and insurance costs.
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs): Metals ETFs offer a convenient way to gain exposure to metal prices without the hassle of physical ownership. These funds track the price of specific metals or a basket of metals.
Mining Stocks: Investing in mining companies provides leverage to metal prices. When metal prices rise, mining stocks can see significant gains. However, they also carry risks related to operational efficiency and market conditions.
Futures Contracts: For more experienced investors, futures contracts offer a way to speculate on metal prices. This method can yield substantial returns but also comes with high risk due to market volatility.
Metal Mutual Funds: These funds invest in a diversified portfolio of metal-related assets, including physical metals, mining stocks, and ETFs. They offer a balanced approach to metal investing.

Strategies for Investing in Metals in 2024

Diversification: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your investments across different metals to mitigate risk.
Stay Informed: Keep up-to-date with market trends, geopolitical developments, and technological advancements that can impact metal prices.
Long-Term Perspective: Metals can be volatile in the short term. Maintain a long-term investment horizon to ride out market fluctuations.
Risk Management: Use stop-loss orders and other risk management tools to protect your investments from significant losses.

The Future of Metal Investments

The metals market in 2024 is poised for growth driven by technological innovation, economic shifts, and global demand.

As the world transitions to a greener economy, the demand for industrial metals will likely surge, creating lucrative investment opportunities.

Precious metals will continue to offer stability and security in uncertain times.

Big Money Investing in the metals market in 2024 requires a blend of knowledge, strategy, and vigilance. By understanding market dynamics and employing diversified investment methods, you can capitalize on the opportunities that metals offer.

Whether you are a seasoned investor or just starting, the metals market can be a valuable addition to your investment portfolio.

Thank you for being a part of our amazing community.

We can’t wait to see you shine finanically!

🔗 Subscribe here!

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