63 Banks Are About To Collapse… This Is Why (and what you should do)
Video Transcript
Subscribe To Big Money the latest FDIC report tells us that the banks are on the brink of collapse because they’ve just reported a517 billion loss and unrealized losses and that’s ENT across the entire US banking system and the FDIC who ures our money at the banks tells us that 63 lenders are on the brink of insolvency and everyone is thinking here comes another 2008 bake collapse all over again even the most famous hedge fund manager Michael bur who got famous for shorting the 2008 crash as shown in the movie You Know The Big Short he’s out talking about how bad this is but is it really so in this video I’m going to break down what the FDIC said just how bad this situation is whether your money in the bank is at risk or not but most importantly how this shows us what’s coming from the FED next and exactly how we should be positioning for this right now so let’s go all right welcome to the channel if you’re new my name is Mark moss and I make these videos of course to change the way you think about money and I’m here to talk about what’s going on with the banks now I have been watching the banks like a hawk for about the last 15 years why is that well if you know my story I had a lot of success early on in my career buying bank owned repos fixing and flipping real estate building from the ground up I started a couple different businesses I had a few high value exits Fortune 500 exits I had it all on the line I was retired I had it made and then 2008 came and changed all of that for me why because of the great financial crash the Bank collapse that happened now I wasn’t paying attention to the financial system at the time and I got caught off guard and I vowed to never let that happen again and so I’ve been watching the banks like a hawk ever since I’ve built up my portfolio again don’t cry for me and now I pay attention to what’s going on so I don’t just get caught off sides definitely don’t want that to happen but I want to profit from this and these moves that are made and that’s exactly why I make these videos and it’s exactly what I’m going to break down for you right now so let’s go ahead and dig in now first of all the big news you’ve probably seen it all over the headlines already and so I want to bring some reality to you the truth is yes the FDIC the insurance company that insures your money in the bank gave us an ominous warning a pretty big warning as a matter of fact they talked about a $517 billion loss in just the first quarter of this year for the banks it’s a pretty big deal this came out on the press release you can go to the FDIC website and read this it was the quarterly banking profile for the first quarter of 2024 and they talked about the performance and they talked about how there was a $517 billion loss in just the first quarter alone now if we dig this up they kind of give us some of the details into how big this was uh it soared by $39 billion so the losses just keep piling up it’s not getting better it’s getting worse $517 billion loss in the first quarter so that’s what’s going on now if we take a look at this like I said without understanding maybe that seems really bad and it certainly is the FDIC said these were unusually high losses unusually high and of course they are now if we take a look at it in more of a chart fashion a graphical fashion what we’re seeing here is from 2008 during the great financial crash uh it didn’t look so bad and yet here we are today and you might say yes this looks actually way worse and you would of course be right now the difference that we have here is the red and the blue is the blue is what’s available for sale so this is the banks are holding us treasuries on their books this is their asset you give them money and they buy us treasuries the risk-free asset now these treasuries have different maturity levels some of them are you know months to years to decades three decades 30 years and some of them they’re not a term some of them they have to sell some of them they don’t and this is the problem I want to break down for you a little bit but just so you can see the um graphical representation of this these blue treasuries are the ones that are available for sale and these red ones are what they’re going to hold to maturity so they’re going to hold them for 10 20 30 years and so those aren’t so much of a problem it’s what they have to sell right now that they are underwater in that’s causing a problem you can just see the size of that move and of course you can understand which is why of course the FDIC said that it’s an unusually high now this has been going on for nine4 in a row now nine qu in a row with no end in sight okay so that’s sort of what’s going on but we want to dig into the details cuz because the details are always in the details right okay before I jump into the details real quick and talk about the exact data I want to let you know that I have a codec a way to decipher what’s really driving markets and of course it’s about the liquidity but how does liquidity Drive the market and what’s going to happen and this whole banking situation is going to affect liquidity and so if you want to know the exact codec of how we can map liquidity over to asset prices and specifically which asset prices are going to move based off the sensitivity and even even more importantly how liquidity moves in a repeating cycle huh I got a break for you I want to have a live event where I’m going to break all of this down I got all the charts to show you how liquidity is moving how different assets move at different rates and like I said more specifically how we can time this by understanding the Cycles if you want to come join me for free I’m going to break all this down it’s going to blow your mind the Codex of monetary Cycles there’s a link down below or a QR code on the screen it’s all for free I’m going to show you all the charts and then I’m going to stick around and answer all your questions questions live but let’s keep going with the video so if we dig into the data behind this we see something maybe a little bit different what am I talking about we know that the banks are sitting on about five and a half trillion these numbers are so big we lose relation to them5 half trillion dollars in Securities why well during the pandemic when the fed and the US government pumped out trillions and trillions of dollars most of that went into the banks the pandemic money even when you got your stemmy you probably put that in the bank or you bought something and then they put that into the bank or so forth and so all that pandemic money went to the banks what do the banks do with it well they put it into us treasuries again the risk-free asset and so all of that went in there as a matter of fact we had $6.2 trillion in treasuries at the peak in q122 so it’s come down a little bit from 6.2 to 5.4 I do want to point out just really quickly C certainly you know 5.4 is less than 6.2 but it’s not that much less and it just goes to show you how much money is still out there sosing around on the system that wasn’t there just pre pandemic okay now uh to kind of show you a graphical representation I love to look at the charts because it shows us sort of the size and the move of these things and this gives us all Securities again going back to 2008 the last great financial crash now you know there’s a saying generals always fight the last war and so what happens is I was attacked here before I think that’s where the attack is going to be again and so everybody is expecting a banking collapse because we had a banking collapse but it doesn’t doesn’t always work out exactly the same way what do they say nature or history doesn’t repeat it rhyme something like that okay so what we can see here is the different types of Securities the total Securities which are the purple we can see how high they were here what’s available for sell and what’s held for maturity so we already looked at this and so you kind of get to see it a different way and you can see that they’ve been coming down a little bit but they’re still super high compared to where we were in 2008 um but the thing is here is that these are unrealized losses what does that mean well the assets on their books have gone down to where they if they sell them today they’re going to lose a lot of money but to the point that I showed you not all of them have to be sold today most of them will be held to maturity and as long as they can and that’s the question as long as they can hold them to maturity 20 30 years then should be no problem they’ll sell them and that is the problem that is the theory versus reality now you might remember in March of 20123 I made some videos about it when we had Banks collapse so we had Silicon Valley Bank um First Republic Bank ET go bust why well because they had unrealized losses on their books the problem was those unrealized losses the theory not a big deal became reality when depositors you and I decided there’s too much risk there I think I’m going to pull some of my money out of the bank and when you went to get when people went to get their money out of the bank guess what the bank didn’t have it why because it was parked in treasuries that were out of losses so then they were forced to sell the treasuries at a loss and the theory the unrealized losses became reality which became real losses so the thing is in theory it shouldn’t be a big deal to have the unrealized losses but the reality is it’s not a problem until it is and then it’s a problem really really quickly okay but really let’s get back to this really is this really a problem and if so how big of a problem and more importantly at the end of the day what does it mean to us and what should we do about it so really what we have here is interest rate risk not credit risk now it’s important to understand what that means you see right now what we’re facing is interest rate risk meaning because the Fed has raised the rates it caused the value of those treasuries to go down which means the banks holding those assets have lost value in those all right so it’s interest rate risk because of what the FED has done now the FED could lower rates again which would push those assets back up and they’d be back in maybe CLE close to positive territory it’s important to understand what this risk is with the banks because this time is different meaning in 2008 it was credit risk you see homeowners were defaulting on their loans the credit was losing value because people were defaulting but that’s not happening today it’s not about homes being default as a matter of fact homes are at all-time highs it’s interest race risk so you have to understand what the risk is a lot of times people ask me what should I do and it’s like well what problem are I trying to solve what’s the risk that we’re trying to solve for and so you want to understand that’s different but what I do want to bring out is that is it really different you see is this a really a big deal 500 billion sounds like a big deal but compared to what you see humans our brains if anything else were comparing mechanisms if I were to ask you is this pen heavy you would say well compared to what so we want to understand this in comparison so let me show you a chart here this is a comparison of how bad things are today or in 2023 versus 2008 so here in 2008 you can see all of these banks that went bust Washington Mutual being the biggest one Indie MAAC being pretty big Colonial Bank being pretty big Etc of course banks have continued to collapse Banks always Collapse by the way they’re always collapsing all the time because guess what what is it 80 90% of businesses fail so they’re always going out of business but these three banks that we saw in March of 2023 were worse than anything that we had seen any of the big banks that we saw in 2008 so just compared to what we can see the size of this move but what about right now cuz 500 billion sounds pretty bad the FDIC says 63 Banks could be going bust on the brink so it’s 63 Banks a lot is this something that we should be worried about because it certainly gets me clicks on this video but we want to bring this to reality so we can front run this if we can so the FDIC says that the health of the US banking system is not an imminent risk not imminent okay doesn’t mean there’s not a risk but it’s not an imminent risk it says that it could cause credit quality earnings and liquidity challenges so liquidity challenges meaning that there could be deterioration in certain loan portfolio so potentially um we could see a tightening in the markets maybe you can’t get as many loans as you want maybe interest rates go back up so there could be volatility it could be some problems of course if businesses can’t get loans they don’t have expansion it s sort of starts to have this downward spiral but to put this into perspective just to put your mind at ease just a second here we can see the number of banks the problem banks that we have the problem Banks list those with camels composite rating of four the bad ones we can see that its increased from 52 in the fourth quarter 2023 to 63 in the first quarter 2024 so it’s going up so the direction is not good however that that being said the number of problem Banks represented just 1.4% of total Banks only 1.4% of total banks are at risk so it certainly gets headlines certainly got you to watch this video but again it’s a very small percentage I will say however though you know we can look back to 2008 and see it was a couple of banks that really dragged this whole system down so it’s certainly not something to not pay attention to but it’s not an imminent collapse and I would just say overall that the money in the bank that you have there right now I do not believe is at imminent risk for me anyway I’m not panicking over the money I have in the bank I know a lot of you are so if that’s the case then why am I making this video what am I telling you for well because I think there’s something that we need to be paying attention to because this presents a massive opportunity if we’re paying attention and if you’re not paying attention it’s going to be a big problem for you so what am I talking about not losing your money in the bank I’m talking about maybe losing the value of your money in the bank and lost opportunity cost let me break that down okay let me first uh talk about the Powell preview Powell went on 60 Minutes I did a whole video breaking down Powell’s entire interview on 60 Minutes and in this clip he was asked specifically about the banking collapse in 2023 if they got caught off guard well let’s just play the clip you seem confident in the banks and yet the Silicon Valley Bank second largest failure in US history did the FED miss that so yes we uh we did and we forthrightly uh saw that we needed to do better so we’ve spent a lot of time working on ways to make supervision more effective and also to to to adapt regulation to a more to a modern context okay so there you had it directly from Fed chair Drome Pal’s mouth he said yes you know we’re sort of caught off sides in that banking collapse but don’t you worry we got it under control now you see they have all types of measures and things in place to make sure that doesn’t happen again now what did they do after the 2003 collapse this is the important piece to understand of course they bail them out that goes without saying they cannot when I say they I mean the fed and I mean basically the government they cannot allow depositors in the bank to lose money why well if One Bank collapses and people don’t get their money out guess what’s going to happen to all the other deposits in the system people are going to say well shoot I can’t trust my money in the bank I’m going to take all my money out and so that’s why I don’t think your money in the bank is at risk but the value of your money is why because when they bailed out the banks they created something called the btfp the btfp is a bank turn funding program and so basically they created a a credit facility and they put about a hundred billion it went up more than that about a hundred billion doll to the banks so they didn’t go bust and I want to break down the details because I’ve done several videos on this here’s the important thing to realize though this all happened in a matter of days as a matter of fact it was six days from the time the banks collapsed to the time that the government the fed put the btfp program a the bailout the100 billion do bailout and it’s important to understand this because what did that do this is where we want to think about as investors when that money went in when the government bailed out the banks when the world realized that the FED is going to bail them out the fed put is in place and more importantly the hundred billion got injected into the system when that happened we see as home homes were starting to sell off they went back to New all-time highs as a matter of fact just last week us homes across the United States made a new all-time high but it wasn’t just homes that did that the S&P 500 you can see had been trending down down down down down down down and then right here that btfp program happened and look at what happened to the S&P 500 looks like a V doesn’t it now that’s the s&p500 which is not near as sensitive it pushed it up 27% now I made a bunch of videos all through 2023 saying I’m putting my money into the market I’m buying there’s no collapse coming why did I make all those videos because of this so 27% on the S&P 500 it’s not as sensitive to liquidity but you know what is more sensitive to liquidity of course that would be the NASDAQ that would be tech stocks and we can see a very similar pattern they had been going down down down down down down down down down down down and then right here the btfp program happened and boom right back up again as a matter of fact the NASDAQ went up by 50% so it doubled the gains that the S&P 500 did now what’s even more sensitive to liquidity than the NASDAQ well uh go ahead and drop it in the comments if you already know and of course that would be Bitcoin which we saw a very similar pattern it had been trending down down down down down we had the btfp enter the market right here and it went right back up and this went up for 215% so you could have made like 5 or 7% on real estate could have made 25% on the S&P 500 could have made uh 50% on the NASDAQ and you could have made 200% in Bitcoin if you just watch this channel well not just that if you’re paying attention to the liquidity flows and if you’re not you are going to be completely missing out as a matter of fact I’ve broken down this monetary codec a way to decipher the markets that shows it’s the liquidity that’s driving asset prices higher that’s why all assets are making Highs at the same time regardless of what the economy is doing but even more importantly it’s not just knowing how the monetary Supply changes the asset prices more importantly how different asset prices move based off sensitivity and even more importantly the Codex I figured out the monetary codex is the Cycles so we can see the timing of how liquidity moves the asset prices if you want to see all this I’m going to have a live presentation next week you can come hang out with me I have I don’t know 2030 charts I’ll break this down so you can understand how to use this in your own Investments and I’m even going to stick around live you can answer or you can ask any questions you have I’ll answer them all live there’s a link down below there’s a QR code here on the screen if you want to come hang out with me it’s all free it’s all live you don’t want to miss this this is the code X okay now but what I’m saying is I don’t think your money in the bank is at risk you’re not going to lose it but you will lose the value why because the government and the FED are going to print more money to keep the banks propped up so the value of that dollars will go down and more importantly the missed opportunity the Lost opportunity of not being in assets which assets well as I just showed you the more scarce the asset specifically with a tech narrative the better you’re going to do so as I always say hard scarce assets so hopefully that set your mind at ease this is a big deal but not for what most people think not because you’re going to lose your money but because you’ll lose the value and because you’ll miss out on the gains if you’re sitting on the sideline scared like the headlines are trying to make you hopefully that makes sense for you let me know what you think in the comments does that make you feel more at ease are you ready make some money or are you still scared let me know in the comments down below of course as always give me a thumbs up on this video if you like it if you don’t you can give me a thumbs down that’s okay but at least tell me why in the comments down below oh and hit subscribe while you’re at it that’s what I got to your success I’m outUS Financial News
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Comments (22)
How will the banks collapsing affect asset prices? If you want to know then join me Live on my FREE Monetary Codex stream: https://go.1markmoss.com/waves
Commercial real estate toxic.
Gotta question!…..why did you parrot disinfo?….63….hmmm!…. shouldn't that number by itself raise a red flag? Perhaps you might be a new candidate for Masonic recruitment…. be careful what you post
Scared for my pension & do not want to move it to paper gold. So what is next. & how to keep it?
Did you listen to the Fed Chairman, yesterday? He said the banks are fine. I don’t know if that’s true or not, but that’s what he said.
Which banks?!
In other words….we're all fucked….
I want to see the list of those 63 banks
If this is so scary. How do YOU plan on surviving??? Living out on a piece of land with solar power chickens and a garden???
Thank you for sharing all of your hard work for us!
What’s interesting is that these people are professionals and markets are at ATH….
VERY excited for Mark's videos when a Bitcoin standard finally replaces this dumpster fire of a banking system.
Thus guy is playing you. ALL TGE BANKS ARE IN TROUB L E
Downvoted for superfluous sound effects.
We can't see the details on the charts you have on the screen. Could you please show your charts the way Jeff Snider at Eurodollar Univ. shows the information? That is, the chart is shown directly in the video instead of just displaying a video that shows your screen.
Are you runing out of time on savings because of the banks and there crisis,just take free courses on how to save and even get 7-10% interest on your savings
Very good mark. Scary stuff
Banks will all become obsolete, we are moving to virtual world, virtual currency, virtual food…… Virtual everything.
Banks bought longer term bonds to get more yield when rates were below 2%…now rates have rocketed up and those bonds have been marked against capital. On top of this you have commercial RE collapsing so banks in a tough spot. I think more failures and mergers going on.
The entire fiat monetary system IS A GIANT PONZI SCHEME.
❤ Thanks Mark! So tired of the mumbo jumbo backlash spin
Consciousness and intelligence belong to universe