🔴 BEST Gains Will Be In Silver…Here’s Why | Michael Oliver #silver #gold

June 11, 2024

🔴 BEST Gains Will Be In Silver…Here’s Why | Michael Oliver #silver #gold

MrBigMoney How To, How To Invest In The Metals Market ai, artificial intelligence, commodities, commodities investing, finance, gold, gold miners, gold mining stocks, gold stocks, investing, machine learning, markets, mining stocks, money, oil, oil stocks, silver, silver miners, silver mining, silver mining stocks, silver stocks, speculating, stock, stock market, trading, uranium, uranium mining, uranium mining stocks, uranium stocks 29 Comments

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if you had to pick one market with the greatest percent movement whether down or up uh I think it’s silver would have the greatest percent gain and and probably the gold miners as well because we know that they’re you know you look at a long-term spread chart of let’s say the X index which you know originated back in the 1980s and compare it to Gold we’re off the page cheap and it’s it’s been laying there it’s not getting cheaper it’s been there since so for the last eight so eight or nine years just laying there dead on the spread chart holding it holding its own versus gold during that time you know with the spread’s gone sideways so it’s par performer but still very very cheap in relation to gold and uh or in relation to the S&P 500 too you know that component of stocks the miners versus S&P they’re cheap now you know you could say Well they’re garbage well or the other hand other possibility is uh it’s a bargain Michael Oliver thank you for coming on the show my friend good to be here Danny so for people who may not know who you are Michael I certainly know who you are but for those who don’t the one or two out there uh can you give us a little bit of an intro on yourself what got you into investing gold and silver all of that stuff oh geez back when I was a kid practically in the young 20s I joined EF Hutton commodity division in New York Lower Manhattan headquarters I didn’t know damn thing about technical analysis I knew a lot about gold and uh I gave up an academic career and got into the future side of the business the gold had just been legalized in January of 75 I got hired by Hutton in April and I spent a year and a half up there I apprenticed under the head of the department who was also chair of the comx at the time those are interesting years the 70s you know bunker hunt years and all that stuff uh anyway so and I he taught me you know normal Orthodox Tech technical analysis you know price chart stuff and um it was great experience uh and I was I was a gold bug obviously intellectual attachment to Gold I’m I’m a Libertarian and uh I gold is money okay I’d rather have a a solid money in my hand than something that’s that inflates every day okay anyway but in 1992 I left brokerage and started research company called momentum Str Ral analysis so what 32 years ago U because I what I developed was a different A variation of technical analysis instead of looking at bar charts of price I analyzed bar charts of price measured against given moving averages meaning an oscillator where I’d oscillate the price versus you know moving averages shortterm long-term Etc and I happened to catch the crash in ‘ 87 that’s when I was a broker at the time and that smacked me in the face because I I knew why I caught it it was a technical reason it was very obvious when you looked at the charts fact I’ve shown them before in some old reports but if you saw the momentum charts back then of the S&P 500 and you saw a price chart you saw the price chart you didn’t see it coming you looked at the momentum charts you said oh my God what a floor you ever break that you’re going they did two weeks later they crashed and so it smacked me in the face that you know I need to develop this more and so I developed the methodology more and more in more depth different time dimensions and so forth and I got hired by U not hired by but I got a client from a major bank at the time that wanted to my pay me soft dollars for the research and we branched out to retail subscribers in 2015 and uh we analyze all four major asset categories and especially this day and age you know and I I speaking with some history uh the integration or the the inverse or the correlation between certain markets has never been more important you can’t just like if you’re a gold bug you just can’t look at gold really it’s a stupid thing to do you need to be looking at what’s going on in government debt markets US Stock Market in particular it’s all intertwined yeah Etc yeah they bump into each other like icebergs okay you know and the now I happen to have a view though that gold tends to lead the events most people look at gold just like they do the stock market oh a data point today you know it me that’s what it did in 2020 yeah old R it It ultimately it leads and anticipates the unfolding of events that later come and you you look back and say ah damn it knew it you know uh and I think that’s why gold has been doing what it’s been doing for the last uh three or four months but especially the last couple years where just persisted up at that 2000 plus level just you know they’d knock it down and it come back up again you know that’s not a top you know you could look at history of tops you don’t top that way that’s a Launchpad anyway that was a quadruple top from few months ago yeah you go back and look at old highs and gold and when you made a high you made a high period it was over you never came back to it you might have tried to but you didn’t come back but coming back to it again and again even even price was telling you something which a lot of people overlooked anyway so gold is not broken out and I think there’s a i our argument is the stock market’s been topping since early 2022 and even though the S&P and NASDAQ have made Single percentage new highs especially S&P largely due to very very limited heavily weighted some but uh it’s a very narrow market now and and we know in history that that’s not good but forgetting that the momentum technicals of the stock market tell us one we’ve had the big biggest stock market bubble in US history in terms of the percentage gain since 2009 and the duration of the bull market terms of years you go back and look at 1923 to 29 look at the peak in the mid two 1970s look at the peak.com there like a four or five year Bull Run that’s all triple quadruple that type of thing yeah it’s unprecedented yeah it wasn’t they don’t compare to the bubble we just created in terms of the dimension see S&P has gone up seven Eightfold since 2009 nasic 100 has gone up 17 fold since 2009 there’s no comparison and you say well because the economy is strong well you know uh look at an M2 chart fed fund St Louis G you look at an M2 chart going back to the 1950s and it just it’s just upward curving thing doesn’t matter what decade it is you almost double the money supply every decade now it’s even more this past decade and then look at a Fed funds chart the FED funds chart is uh you know they drop rates very low I think it was 25 year old low back in 1994 95 and what followed was the dot bubble and then after the drop from the 2000 High to the 2002 low during 2001 oh here we go what you got that’s it there it is yeah we’ve leveled off a bit but still decade the decade what’s happened in the last 10 years as you can see that sharp run up there uh we’re we’re more than the normal decadal increase and it’s starting uptick again and fed funds have done the same thing except inverse they gave us free money between 2008 and and a couple years ago we had effectively free money okay lowest in history and so naturally it filled the tank you know the gas tank and so naturally you had a biggest bull market in history because you had the freest money in history and so that money went somewhere and frankly at the 2009 bare low in the stock market we put out a buy suit one week before the low in March 2009 and it was technically Justified but boy it did persist Way Beyond what we thought it might and that’s because of what they did monetarily and I think gold knows that because it knows that every time that stock market tops and then turns down look at 2000 top for example or the 2007 top followed by a bloody bear Market in the stock market gold goes up and also t- bonds go up interestingly lately the t- bonds have been going down meaning higher yields along with the stock market but they’re about to turn I think about to have a a sharp probably several quarter rally in the t-bonds I see and this is exactly what happened in 2007 uh in September it was mid-september 2007 the FED had been raising rates for a couple years up through 2006 they paused and then in 2007 in September one month before the top tick for nankee cut rates by half a basis point and the S&P had this last four week three three to four week rally into mid October and that was the top okay even though they cut rates but if you look at what happened to t- bonds and gold then it was very similar to what T bonds and gold did in early 2001 they took off upside while the stock market went down so you know archivy you can look back and say oh boy If the Fed would just cut rates that’s great no it isn’t because if you look back at 2001 in the very first day of 2001 not far off the price highs by the way that had occurred in August of 2000.com peak I’m talking now they cut rates and they cut rates savagely for the next couple years and the market crashed savagely okay same in 2007 they cut rates in September Market peaked in October started puke for a couple years they cut rates all the way down so fed cutting rates is not good for the stock market yeah because it means they’re they’re actually panicked about something you know yeah it’s it’s like going to the doctor and getting prescribed medicine well everything’s fine but here take this right away you know good point but anyway so right now I the audience out there with the data points we’ve had lately you know the employment data well Monday and then today some some numbers it’s reinforcing the notion ah they’re going to cut and it probably won’t be at the end of the year it may be sooner and I think we’re waiting now on the ECB to to cut possibly so okay so there’s all this investor anticipation of the good news of a rate cut all I can say is go back and look at the last two major stock market tops and tell me if that’s a good event okay and then also look at what gold and T bonds did then uh counter to the stock market so I think that’s where we are and a lot of these big tectonic plates are moving positioning get into position for doing what they’re going to do and the dollar has also been a real quiet nonf factor for the last two years if you look at a dollar index chart it’s been like a 5 to 6% range and it’s and if you go back about 10 20 years and look at that range it’s one of the narrowest ranges we’ve had on the dollar index in a long time it’s literally asleep in other words it it it collapsed from a 2 115 price High yeah on the left there you see that in 2022 yeah that Peak you collapsed but then then you spent almost two years just going dead mhm and now we’ve got some numbers you can’t see it on the price chart the price chart lows are down around 100 there recently but momentum quarterly momentum of dollar indexes we measure is the monthly action in its oscillator relationship to its 3/4 moving average or a 40we average would be comparable for example uh in duration you’re measuring price versus a long-term average and you’re oscillating it you’re not just laying the average on a price chart is meaningless when you oscillate it you have a multiple point uptrend line on the dollar Index it goes back over a year and if you close the week out down near 84 let’s say excuse me what am I say 104 um right now I think we’re 10430 so actually our number is about 10430 but if you close the week out there we’re going to break that structure and so what we’re suggesting is that other tectonic plate the Foreign Exchange Market the major Foreign Exchange Market is about to get noisy again and it’s not been a factor for the last couple years in terms of any movement of significance and if it starts to get noisy again then all of a sudden all your four major asset categories start to do something which is likely to surprise some people terms of which which way they’re going and I think gold knows that I think it’s known it’s coming it knew there’s a bubble going to break and when the bubble broke in the stock market it knew the FED would do what they always do which is print print print and E CB too you can’t they all lump together so it’s a very interesting time yeah I mean this comes off the heels as of today the Bank of Canada for the first time in four years announced a rate cut down to 4.75% good so you’re starting to see some cracks in the wall yep that’s that’s what it is and uh it’s there there’s another factor out there that I’ve mentioned for over a year and now it’s starting to be realized by more and more people the yeah we have a political divide in the US right okay everybody knows it it’s unusually wide it’s uh vehement it’s not friendly and we’ve argued that the election no matter who wins the election the outcome will be unop patic meaning unstable meaning it becomes a factor that most people aren’t pricing into for example the stock market as a variable that could affect things and I think it’s about to hit in fact I I have a sense that it’s going to hit before the election even we’re going to have a sense that oh boy you know you’re not going to wait till after the election to see the unop patic nature of the events and that’s not priced into the stock market you rarely see it talked about in the financial markets uh and I I think it’s going to be an upset factor is gold sniffing it out do you think I think think gold knows it’s I think gold Knows A lot’s coming and I think that’s why it’s behaved as it has over the last few years and U now there you know we got all the gold doubters out there and I’m talking about gold bulls even who are who are doubters and you know they we make an argument that what happened over the last three and a half years in gold was basically a range-bound situation where up down up you sell the rallies you make some money okay and there was one flush out in 2022 but if you chop off a few weeks of that September 2022 puke that Dro down through 1675 and got down to 1613 on gold that entire Peak to low would have been a 20% move but most of the range of gold during that three and a half years was 15% and everybody thought each drop was like a bare Market in a narrow range 15% is not that big of a deal and it was holding there for a reason because I think it knew what ultimately would unfold and that therefore the central bank would go back to you know that which they do best and what they were invented for uh anyway and now I think we’re about there and now that people realize that and you can have some late chasers of gold but the problem with the most technicians right now is they’re using the analysis that they applied over the last three and a half years in that range-bound situation to evaluate Peaks and lows you know what’s overbought okay well there was a certain normality to what was overbought during the last three years or so and when it get there you could sell it and make a hundred bucks or so you know and in the case of silver and the miners while gold went sideways they staircased downside they underperformed after a massive outperformance surge they enjoyed in the summer of 2020 they beat the pants off gold but then after that Peak they gave back their performance gains that too has shifted if you measure and we measure it via spread charts Silver versus gold and GDX for example versus gold we plot like monthly closes you know where’s GDX in relation to to gold as a percentage where’s the price of silver as a percent of the price of gold and we plot that and we also run momentum studies of it but they’ve both broken out meaning that that underperformance trend we had for three years that trend is technically broken to the upside meaning going forward probably over the next several quarters the miners and silver will beat gold again uh so yeah watch gold but uh so we’ve got the GDX versus gold I know this isn’t taking into account your oscillation analysis but uh for people who are wondering that’s the ratio there so yeah we measure the action since the 2020 late you know just that piece right there from like 2020 high right right there right about go over to the right a little bit right there that action there that downtrend we plotted on a spread chart and we created a parallel Channel and you’ve actually broken out now not a trend line it’s a parallel channel it’s a more complicated we did get out above it and the case of silver it’s it’s more obvious uh had like a fivepoint downtrend um measur so silver Futures versus no not Sil that’s the mining yeah there’s silver Futures yeah uh well just as price has done that but the spread is broken out as well so anyway that to us that spread relationship shift back to outperformance is what happened also late in the 1979 1980 bull Trend when all the metals went vertical and what happened in 2010 to 11 in the last year that bull market so in other words when you entered the acceleration phase of those that gold bull gold and silver bull market where silver beat the pants off of gold for the last several quarters of the bull market I mean just rampaged ahead of gold um the spread broke out and told you that I’ve broken out I’m now going to get into gear against gold and not only did their price turn up dramatically in an acceleration mode as opposed to like an arm wrestling type Trend which had prevailed for years you know up down up down but gradual up the spread also said yep that’s what’s happening that’s what’s happened now actually since late March especially in April all these readings broke out annual momentum of silver silver versus gold GDX annual momentum broke out over a ceiling uh the spread versus gold all these metrics flipped and said the trading range that you lived in from 2020 to 2023 or late 2020 yeah the late 2023 is over forget those metrics they only appli to dollsville Market and frankly if you take a get a logarithmic chart of silver go back 50 years and look at what happened in that last three or four years it’s one of the dullest most narrow ranges of ink that you’ve ever SE seen in silver and extremely dormant so to use that time period as as a norm yeah if you put that on a log scale for example that clump of ink that you see there in the upper right no yeah like sort of like that one there yeah that’s back in 1974 75 you see but just over to the right where we’re now broken out above the recent range but that little clump of ink to the left if you put it on a log scale chart especially yep a ratio scale I don’t know if you can do that but you can hardly it’s like all sideways ink except for the couple months in 20202 anyway it’s abnorm that was an abnormally narrow hey guys quick pause have you ever dreamed about seeing any of the cool guests that we get on Capitol cosm or that you see on these other YouTube channels in person well now you can we can see Rick rule Adrien day Daniel D Martino Booth Dr Nomi prin Grant Williams James Rickards Lobo gr and more you can do so by joining the Rick R Symposium July 7th through the 11th you can register Now link to that is down below and it takes place in boo ratton Florida on a beach resort you get to meet all the cool people that you’ve been watching on YouTube and you get to do it Beachside on a resort what more do you want if you’re interested link to that is down below and let’s get back to the video and so any norms you got from that were abnormally low volatility so now we’ve broken through that stuff so everybody’s saying oh Silver’s overbought yes it is by those standards but you can go back into the history of silver and find periods like that where you’ve had these little tight little clumps and then suddenly for like three4 of a year it just goes vertical and makes up for what it had not done before and I think we’ve entered that phase and I don’t think most analysts are quite yet aware the reality just changed Okay so we’ve covered gold we’ve covered silver what about another indicator that’s pretty pertinent to health and the economy Dr copper himself what if copper um you ratios like the copper to gold ratio that can tell you whether you’re entering a recession or not it’s an interesting thing and you get a Ponder on it just look at price for example U first off copper broke out by our metrics uh just above $4 several months back it surged up over five took out the high that we saw in 2022 at $52 so took that out by a bit and it pullback is like 470 right now okay but there was a high in 2011 when gold was making its high at $920 in 2011p Copper was making a high at 460 so copper effectively on a price chart has done similar action on a monthly price chart going back 10 15 years to what Gold’s done made a peak pull back made a peak pull back made a peak another a third new high now it’s not as strong as gold and I think there’s a chance we’ve got some numbers above copper that we approached but didn’t get to it’s in the 530s for example we I think we get up in the five teens okay yeah 538 I think is the number you get there you’re likely to rush to seven okay but right now it’s in an uptrend they’re fighting it around the old highs which was $5 two cents back in 2022 which was not coincident with gold by the way gold had a run up and doubled in summer of 2020 copper was still in the hole at that point so copper though it when you stand back and look at the last 15 or so years it looks similar but actually it’s not quite in sequence with gold uh it’s more in sequence with the Bloomberg commodity index but it’s looking good copper looks good and we know the reasons you know we were told two years ago in fact by most analysts the supply side analysts there’s a supply problem coming with copper terms of capability to keep up with the needs you know and sure enough it’s now exposing itself yeah demand side problem as well yeah you know you don’t have to have a I don’t by the way the the I know the guy who came up with that term but doctor economy or whatever for copper I don’t think it fits because um it doesn’t mean to get a strong economy you have you could have strong copper but it doesn’t mean a strong economy right sometimes it might it’s but doesn’t cause it the correlation doesn’t fit it’s a fif the Bloomberg is re resurrecting itself um it doesn’t mean you get a strong economy just like back in the late 1970s we had strong Commodities and very weak economy and weak stock market you know it it I think we’re at a similar Point um but yeah copper that that’s an interesting thought that when you look at Copper and gold price and go back to 2011 you said good grief you know why isn’t silver up there if silver were doing what Copper’s doing it’d be above 50 right now okay right well maybe something’s been overlooked here you know maybe that’s going to happen and I I strongly think it will um and and a lot more but uh you know on a relative basis silver is still very undervalued to Gold very undervalued even copper and I think it’ll do a catchup yeah so that’s my my own personal Focus you know I can’t recommend it to everybody because everybody’s different in investment needs and capabilities but Silver’s the place I’m focused right now yeah it’s really interesting you bring it up it seems like there is a bit of a correlation between the copper to gold ratio and the silver ratio and just silver by itself oh is it really okay so that’s it let me share really quick it’s a interesting thought so you’ve got silver here and orange and then the copper to gold ratio here in the uh with the candlesticks isn’t that interesting yeah uhuh yeah so as you can see here it’s a little bit of a gap so yeah but still the basic flow seems to be above pretty good yeah but I I think that’s a valid technical feature there uh and I think that the the most drama we’re going to get out of any you had to pick one market with the greatest percent movement whether down or up uh I think it’s silver would have the greatest percent gain and and probably the gold miners as well because we know that they you know you look at a long-term spread chart of let’s say the X index which you know originated back in the 1980s and compare it to Gold we’re off the page cheap and it’s it’s been laying there it’s not getting cheaper it’s been there since so for the last eight eight or nine years just laying there dead on the spread chart holding it holding its own versus gold during that time you know where the spread’s gone sideways so it’s par performer but still very very cheap in relation to gold and uh or in relation to the S&P 500 too you know that component of stocks the miners versus S&P Dirt Cheap now you know you could say Well they’re garbage well or the other hand other possibility is uh it’s a bargain you know it’s like your granddad told you buy cheap sell High don’t don’t chase markets okay look for distortions in the markets capitalize on them yeah and I think that’s where we are and I think there’s been some asset managers we all know this you know Dr and Miller for example mid-February came in and bought up a bunch of gold miners and dumped some tech stocks and um you know he bought numont for example numont back then was trading in the low 30s right now it’s in the low 40s not bad for you know 10 weeks of move you know uh couple several months Mo excuse me but um I’m sure people Chuck L at it when he did that you know thought what an idiot buying this stuff you and others have joined in since I understand and I think it’s because they perceive it to be you know a category of stock assets that just is is ain’t going to go any lower therefore the risk is very small the potential reward is quite good especially when they look at a gold chart they say something’s going on here uh these miners are underpriced they’re not they’re not reality based yet and if they go to reality they could go up a lot and I think that’s why you’ve had some movement and that’s also why I think if you wobble that stock market and I think we’ll do that I think we’ll see it by next quarter we’ll see some sharp deine when that occurs portfolio managers even the non- gold bugs are going to be looking for segments of stocks that are behaving well and I think they’re going to find in general that commodity related stocks are behaving well but the gold miners in particular are dirt cheap and are behaving well very well on a percentage gain basis therefore let’s move 5% out of the stock market move it over to the miners you know that type of thing and of course what’s important about that is the miners are so small as a category that it’s the wet bar soap situation you know where everybody’s grabbing it it squirts up and that’s that’s where I think gold miners are right now so that’s another place to look yeah I mean you can just throw in gold as well you look at the total allocation of the gold and gold miners total market cap as a percentage of total Global allocation it’s like less than 1% yeah around 1% it won’t take much and you track it throughout history it’s like in the in the 80s it was 26% like 30% something like that so doesn’t necessarily mean it has to go all the way back up to those levels but even a small I mean even if you went halfway back halfway back would be enormous would beor uh in terms of percentage gain of miners so you know if you’re an investor looking for place to go you can be balanced if you want you know like we would suggest you know being out of the stock market we did in said in 2022 so far you’ve missed the equivalent of t- Bill yields okay if you stuck around you’d have done as well in t- bills okay yeah what about mining stocks and just commodity equities yeah in general if you look at most commodity stocks they don’t correlate well to the stock market in general so for example during a lot of the period of that 2009 through 2022 run in S&P a lot of the commodity stocks like from I think it was 2016 onward like The XLE for example the energy sector was going down wasn’t just not going up it was going down and a lot of commodity stocks like fertilizer stocks agricultural industry stocks um the the mining stocks we’ve been talking about also base metal miners things like xme which is more of the base metal stuff uh they’ve not been really well correlated to the stock market and they technically look ripe to go up meaning to reflect a Resurgence in Commodities uh and we happen to think we we called the low in the Bloomberg commodity index in October of 2020 it’s about three months after its low at that point it was coming up from below 60 on the Bloomberg just above 70 and we put out a major we said commodity explosion coming well by early 2022 meaning a year and a quarter later it had doubled went to 140 okay and at that point we hit some levels of resistance and thought it might pull back sure enough it did that’s when the war started know people say oh it went up because of the war no it didn’t it peaked one month after the War Began in Ukraine and Russia so you can’t blame it on that war that didn’t cause oil to go up or grains to go up they’d already been going up yeah I remember yep yeah and now our technicals tell us that the pullback we’ve seen in Commodities since then and you like the Bloomberg for example pull back to a 100 level on either side of a 100 so it didn’t go back to its low at 58 you know but halfway back from that move in late 2020 and it it basically went dead the last year and a quarter or so you know we just hardly breathing and then we recently shot up here to one 107 I think we’re 102 right now but we broke out on quarterly momentum a couple months ago that said okay this basing process that we’ve seen after the pullback is over and likely we’re commencing the second up leg in the Bloomberg the first leg being the 20120 to 2022 and we look across the spectrum of the Commodities energy in general led on a percentage basis that that move of late 2020 to 2020 more pronounced among the grains in terms of percentage gain and copper of course is making a new high you know Bloomberg if it were making a new high itd be back over 140 right now so copper to some extent is leading this time but it basically you could throw a dart at Commodities or commodity related stocks in that 2020 to 2022 move and make good money and I think the same thing is going to be true this time where that’s a category a broad category to be looking at as a favor you know if you want to be in the stock market has it already formed or is it in the process of doing so I’m sorry is what are are we in are we right now into that second leg of this yes I think we’ve started the second leg and it though we did caution when when it broke out a couple of months ago in Bloomberg we said this breakout is indication that it’s shifting its Trend back to positive in sync with its annual momentum Trend which is already positive quarterly it corrected and now was joining annual again uh but we said it it probably won’t be explosive it it might be more arm wrestling and sure enough it’s been arm wrestling but I I think that technically the commodity complex looks like it’s rip for the next up leg and we did some price analysis as well of the Bloomberg if you go back to like 2008 and you know everybody says Commodities are high price baloney we’re trading above a 100 okay back in 2008 the Bloomberg was 23 7 okay at 2011 when Gold Peak Bloomberg was 170 plus and right now it’s just above 100 and you call that expensive I mean just just pop in like the M2 money supply or the S&P in the denominator in a in a commodity index versus any of those two indices and it’s the charts will tell it tell a story by themselves yeah and it certainly defeats a lot of what we’re told from the people above that oh you know Commodities going up because of external events nothing to do with us printing money yeah so anyway that’s that’s an area to be favorable toward but I don’t think it’s going to match the monetary medals gotta what what gold especially silver and the miners do I think at a percent basis that’s going to be the leading category yeah so this is the uh Goldman Sachs commodity index relative to the S&P yeah yeah and um I mean you can just well it’s dirle see it yeah yeah yeah so this absolutely this was the big move that we saw from 2020 that’s right 150% move just about that index though is more heavily we look at Bloomberg commodity index because it’s more balanced this one’s got more energy waiting than the BL so it reflected a bigger move in that late 2020 to 2022 because it was focused more on oil for example than it was on other markets but right now you can you know throw some darts and you know coffee orange juice uh cocoa sugars trying to base um Wheats broken out upside corn and beans aren’t far behind they’ve got structures overhead on momentum that say you pop up a little bit further than you’ve seen recently and you’re going to break out as well which case the contagion is going to spread within the complex uh fairly broadly and if you look at oil too and natural gas is finally resurrecting itself from the depths of Hell uh was free effectively down near a dollar what do you want you it’s not going to zero uh but U even the energy complex is not going down anymore and it’s starting to there’s some trigger numbers not far overhead in oil and that gas that will say okay they’re gonna they’re going to wake up a little more suddenly you know so yeah let’s shift gears to energy then uh what’s your current take on oil oil is uh dropping down quite precipitously at $73 right now yeah it’s it just spr releases or is there something oh I don’t know the the fundamentals I try to stay away from that frankly because I don’t want to be biased by it uh the technicals on oil are such that there is a what we call a quarterly momentum Trend structure now if you draw a price chart you won’t see this but you can go back a couple years on quarterly momentum and there’s like a three or there I think it’s now a fourpoint downtrend line but if it were a price chart and you had four points that lined up and you broke through that line you’d wake up right to breakout well quarterly momentum has a p breakout such that next quarter up in the low 80s you’re going to break out so now low 80s doesn’t mean much because we had a rally up into the mid 90s a few quarters ago like the 95 remember and then we sunk back down into the basing action just where we are now we’ve been in the 60s in fact but now we’re in the low 70s so in the middle of that base but you pop up one more time and get up in the low 80s by much and our number will vary we’ll finally calculate at the end of this quarter but it’s somewhere in the low 80s you get a monthly close up there and oil says I’m back and it’s its tonal nature will change it’ll start to resurrect itself more strongly and that gas has a similar structure not far above three I think it’s straight around 270 right now so there are some t triggered levels based on our momentum work that say okay this basing action that we’ve seen especially in crude oil gotcha what about coal I know Nat gas and coal tends to be viewed in similar light you can overlay I don’t run I haven’t run coold sorry I don’t have an opinion it might be interesting to run thanks for telling me yeah I just I just think it’s really interesting that you’ve got this AI play where you can actually play it buying Nat gas companies buying coal companies buying uranium companies now yeah it’s so interesting that our our natural resource plays have actually become a play on in Tech a yeah right that’s cool love it uh no I I wouldn’t be an AI right now at all I mean what they’re telling us about the future based on this new emerging technology it’s probably all true and maybe it’s even understated but remember back at the Doom top uh they were telling us stories about how the internet’s going to change your life and you know what it changed our lives more than even the gra the craziest bull back then could have imagined right it was far more significant than they even said and yet the NASDAQ 100 when it Peak dropped 82% 2202 so it it’s a matter of yes it’s real but on the other hand it’s overpriced and it got way ahead of itself you need to Exhale yeah inhale and exhale and when you get a bubble that goes like that when it turns it often doesn’t turn in a way that you can sort of see structure it just goes straight up and straight down um and I’m talking about the you know the leading AI stocks right now which are of course heavily influencing what the NASDAQ 100 is doing definitely well hey Michael we uh we appreciate your time here on the show this has been fantastic any closing comments before we wrap things up well I’ve said this before especially this year what’s going to happen this year in markets is probably one of the most dynamic years you’ve seen in many many decades and it’s only just begun gold has begun I think you’re going to see the dynamic similarly in t-bonds though it won’t be a lasting Trend there it may only last several quarters but a sharp upside and I think you’re going to see it in the stock market especially our Market which is a bubble it’s not true with for example Europe it’s not the same kind of bubble we are North China so focus on the US market is the potential biggest bubble so the Dynamics in these markets could be coming quite interesting and I’m not a sports fan but I’ll tell you you get the best football game you’ve ever seen shaping up so sit back and enjoy it exciting well hey where can people find you Michael Oliver msa.com MSA for momentum structural analysis you can see about our methodology some history Wall Street Journal defines the nature of our work in one sentence uh and you can request some sample copies be fine sounds fantastic well we we will link to that down below and we appreciate your time again if you enjoyed this content be sure to give us a like comment down below let me know if you agree or disagree with any of the takes here in this video would be happy to uh to respond to any uh agreements or disagreements we’ll see how it goes and also guys be sure to hit that subscribe button 85% of you guys who watch this content are not subscribed so please hit that subscribe button support the channel let the algorithm boost us and uh yeah we will see you in the next episode bye y’

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